Vehicle Fuel Economy, 2007 - 2015

A big "thank you" to a reader for sending me this link. From the University of Michigan: the average sales-weighted fuel-economy rating (window sticker) of purchased new vehicles for October 2007 through December 2015 --

The average sales-weighted fuel economy was calculated from the monthly sales of individual models of light-duty vehicles (cars, SUVs, vans, and pickup trucks) and the combined city/highway fuel-economy ratings published in the EPA Fuel Economy Guide (i.e., window sticker ratings, not actual fuel consumption) for the respective models.

Vehicles purchased from October 2007 through September 2008 were assumed to be model year 2008. Analogous assumptions were made for vehicles purchased in each following model year.

The fuel-economy information was available for 99.7% of vehicles purchased.

The period selected by the U of M to highlight is noteworthy in that the data covers exactly the period in which the Bakken boom began in North Dakota (2007) and continues to the end of 2015, a full year in which gasoline prices plummeted.

First the graph and then the table.

Related posts:

New CAFE standards are a few years off:

Regular readers know that there will be a relative shortage of oil in 2017, possibly as early as 2016, as the majors shut down / delay / cancel "big cap" projects in 2014/2015 due to the slump in the price of oil.

Now, add that to the fact that auto and light truck manufacturers are out to put every American in a big pick-up truck. Those big pick-up trucks are gas guzzlers.

So, a perfect storm for some folks in 2017, maybe in 2016, certainly by 2018.

But it gets even better for oil and gas investors (see disclaimer): the CAFE standards that favor big pickup trucks (and possible bigger SUVs) do not change until 2022.

The NHTSA says it will look at the rise of big pickup trucks as part of a review of the CAFE rules that will apply to model years 2022 to 2025. That review doesn’t have to be finished until 2018, but the skirmishing has already begun.

But regardless of the new rules, they don't come into effect until model years 2022. That's seven years from now. Seven more years during which light truck manufacturers will try to get every American into a pickup truck. With an Apple dashboard.

From August 26, 2015:

To add a bit of fuel to this fire, remember that auto manufacturers are setting new records with sales of gas guzzling SUVs, cross-overs, and pick-ups. EV sales are essentially flat. New, potentially stricter CAFE standards are not up for review until 2018, and won't take effect until 2020, IIRC.

From February 22, 2015:

The average fuel economy of all new vehicles sold in the U.S. barely rose last year. The fleet average in 2014 was 24.1 miles per gallon, only one-tenth of a mile per gallon better than 2013. In 2013, the average rose half a mile per gallon. 

GM to cut production at small-car plant, June 12, 2015:

U.S. consumers continue to prefer SUVs and pickup trucks over sedans, particularly small ones, as gasoline prices remain low. The plant makes the Chevrolet Sonic and Buick Verano compact cars.

April 26, 2012:

• automobile executive focused on meeting new CAFE standards (54.4 mpg by 2025)