Connecting The Dots With Regard To An Expensive Wind Farm The Philippines Cannot Afford -- And They Can't Afford Not To -- November 7, 2015

Comment: I'm going to re-post / link two stories that I have already posted. I failed to connect the dots, and this makes the links an even bigger story.

Three givens:

• supply: the center for gravity for fossil fuel is moving from the Mideast to the Midwest, from Saudi Arabia to the North American midwest corridor from Alberta through North Dakota and Oklahoma and down to Texas and Mexico
• consumption: the big growth opportunities for fossil fuel demand will be Asia
• Europe will be the first continent to become a net importer of oil

A new story that is developing: a major Asian supply of oil is likely coming to an end, literally running out.

When it looked like the US was going to run out of affordable energy, back in the 1980s and 1990s, it provided the opportunity for all those science projects to be considered: wind energy, solar energy, biofuels, ethanol, algae-oil, Willie Nelson used cooking oil, etc. But there is no longer any need for those science projects in the US.

However, it appears one Asian country (and there may be others) that are in the same place the US was several years ago when science projects made sense.

That country is the Philippines.

The other day I posted a story about an incredibly expensive wind farm going up in the Philippines. A country like the Philippines is in no position to put up a wind farm unless there's a lot of corruption (probably) and they see a real shortage of affordable fossil fuel in the out years. Is it possible that the Philippines sees the possibility of a real shortage of affordable fossil fuel and are taking steps now to meet the needs of their growing population and that's why they are investing in wind energy, just as the US did when it looked like Peak Oil was real? [Update, November 24, 2015: that's exactly right -- see this post from November 24, 2015 -- yes, natural gas field that the Philippines relies on will be depleted by 2024.]

This is the dot I failed to connect:

Indonesia: And then this Reuters/Rigzone story on Indonesia:

Indonesia's state-owned energy firm Pertamina plans to process more domestic crude oil in a bid to limit the impact on the country of declining production, a plight that is also affecting oil-rich neighbours Malaysia and Brunei.

All three countries, which rely heavily on energy revenues, are running out of oil. Reuters research based on government, industry and consultancy data shows they could run dry within the next 25 years.

By the way, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brunei don't have to run out of oil to start affecting countries like the Philippines. Their production only has to drop far enough that they require all of it for domestic needs (similar to what is starting to happen in Saudi Arabia).

I don't know where the Philippines gets its oil but I assume it's very likely they get a lot from Indonesia.

Regardless, wherever the Philippines gets its oil, it is getting it from the same spot that China is probably sourcing its own imported oil. If I were the Philippines, I would hate to have to compete with China (for anything). [By the way, California is also vying for that same oil. The Philippines are competing with both China and California for oil.]

The story has been there for several years, but I only noticed it today. Previous links at the blog:

• Here's another Sad Sack story for Indonesia, July 7, 2015.
• From Jack Kemp, October 7, 2015: Indonesia's total primary energy consumption grew by 43% between 2003 and 2013.
• Both XOM and MRO are exiting Indonesia, either completely or in bits and pieces.
• Bloomberg reported back in October, 2013, that coal would replace natural gas as the dominant fuel for producing electricity in southeast in the near future.

That's enough, but I will end with one last link, which might be one of the most interesting, why the Philippines which cannot afford wind, but can afford coal, is building expensive wind farms. Yes, the trail leads back to our own President Obama. He will leave the world in worse shape then when he found it when he became president of the United States. Not many presidents can put that on their resume.