BP's Annual Statistical Review Of World Energy, 2015 -- July 11, 2015

This is really cool. From last year, almost this same date, the world had 53.3 years of oil left at current rates of consumption -- BP. One year later: 52.5 years of oil left at current rates of consumption -- BP.

On a straight line of decline, there should have been 52.3 years of oil left at this point, but at 52.5 years, we have a bit longer before we run out. Prognostication: when the 2016 report comes out, the time left should be better than expected with a) poor economy (less energy use); and, b) all that Bakken oil that's been left in the ground waiting for higher prices. Just a little levity on a Saturday morning.

I can't recall if I've linked the BP's 2015 Statistical Review of World Energy. A reader sent me the link. I always enjoy the BP annual review. It appears to report the data with no hidden agenda. Over the years it's been one of the resources that has keep me bullish on fossil fuel.

Among the many, many pages and many, many PDFs that can be viewed and/or downloaded from the 2015 annual assessment, the "outlook in brief" might be as good as any spot to start. I've only read the report on that page; I have not watched/listened to the video, but there is glaring "omission" in the "outlook in brief."

So:

• outlook in brief
• 2014 in review
• renewable power
• solar power
• wind power
• electricity, pdf : this spreadsheet is most interesting; it shows exactly when China overtook the US in electricity consumption (2010) and the change between the two countries is startling. India still represents a very small percent (especially when considered per capita, but having said that India doubled electricity consumption between 2004 an 2014

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To help me keep track:

Wind: maintaining rapid growth, wind power generating capacity grew by 16.2% in 2014, with capacity increasing by 52GW to reach 373GW by the end of 2014.

Solar: new installations totaling 40.2 GW in 2014 took global solar power generating capacity to 180 GW by year-end, a 28.7% increase versus the end of 2013. Capacity has more than quadrupled in the past four years

Electricity, a bit surprising, reflects current economic conditions:  Growth was down on 2013 (2.7%) and remained well below the ten year trend (3.0%). OECD electricity declined by -0.8%, falling for the second year in a row. Non-OECD electricity grew by 3.6%, slower than 2013 (5.5%) and well below the ten year trend (5.9%). Electricity generation grew in all regions except Europe & Eurasia, where it declined by 1.6%. China (+4.0%) and the US (+0.7%) remain the largest and second largest electricity generators, India (+9.6%) is third while Russia (+0.5) overtook Japan (-2.4%) in 2014 to take fourth place. Global electricity generation: 23,636.52 terrawatt hours.

Coal, read this one closely, lots of hidden data in this one 30-second soundbite:  Consumption outside the OECD grew by 1.1%, the weakest growth since 1998, driven by a flattening of Chinese consumption (+0.1%). Ukraine (-20.2%) and the UK (-20.3%) posted significant declines. India (+11.1%) experienced its largest volumetric increase on record and the world’s largest volumetric increase. Consumption fell in all regions except Africa (+2.0%) and North America.

Oil: in last year's 2014 report, BP raised its reserve estimate by 1.1% to 1,687.9 billion barrels, which is enough oil to last the world 53.3 years at the current production rates. In this year's 2015 report:

Total world proved oil reserves reached 1700.1 billion barrels at the end of 2014 sufficient to meet 52.5 years of global production The largest additions to reserves came from Saudi Arabia, adding 1.1 billion barrels. The largest decline came from Russia, where reserves fell by 1.9 billion barrels. OPEC countries continue to hold the majority of the world’s reserves, accounting for 71.6% of the global total. South Central America continues to hold the highest (R/P) ratio, more than 100 years. Over the past decade, global proved reserves have increased by 24%, or over 330 billion barrels.

The math:

• this year: 1,700.1
• last year: 1,687.9
• (1700.1-1687.9)/1687.9 = 0.7% increase in reserves. Not very much. Peak oil?

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Other Sites; Many Undated; Old Data

Installed capacity of world's power plants (electricity) (some numbers rounded, raised a bit for my purposes):

• US: 1,000 GW
• China: 750 GW
• Russia; 250 GW
• India: 175 GW
• Germany: 135 GW
• Brazil: 100 GW
• UK: 85 GW

However, this site shows significantly different numbers, and the site shows that, as of 2012, China had more capacity than the US.

Data for 2012: global total capacity = 5492 GW