Wow! EIA: US Crude Oil Inventories Jumped 10.3 Million Bbls -- Even More Than API Estimate -- Now At 442.1 Million Bbls -- November 15, 2018 -- The Numbers Suggest US Crude Oil Production Is Now Exceeding 12 Million BOPD

Updates

November 15, 2018: see first comment ... really, really interesting, especially the "crude oil" observation:

That's the last gas injection; Kemp's graphs show heating demand closer to mid-December norms ...

https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/7/1949/1948/US%20NATURAL%20GAS%20SELECTED%20INDICATORS.pdf

The unexpectedly high crude inventories have been telling me that [US crude oil] production has been under reported; line 13 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet (unaccounted for crude) has been averaging north of 500,000 bpd for two months: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/table1.pdf 

Production + imports - exports should equal oil refined + oil stored.

My guess is that US production has been running over 12 million bpd at least a couple weeks now.

Original Post

Weekly petroleum report, EIA: posted. Yesterday's API report showed a whopping 9 million-bbl increase. Today, EIA validates that estimate:

• US crude oil inventories: surged 10.3 million bbls -- most I have ever seen; this must be a record
• US crude oil inventories: now back to 440 million bbls -- near the level at which the industry said "we" needed to re-balance a few years ago
• US crude oil inventories: 5% above 5-year average
• US crude oil inventories: no evidence to suggest the trend will change
• refineries operating at 90.1% capacity; unchanged from last week; at lower end of capacity
• distillate fuel up by a whopping 8% from same period last year

Natural gas fill rate. Link here. Small print in the graphic below:

• natural gas inventories are 528 Bcf less than last year at this time
• natural gas inventories are 601 Bcf less than the five-year average
• at 3,247 Bcf, total working gas is [well] below the five-year historical range

Oh-oh.

Polar blast. NYC spokesperson says the city is ready for this weekend's "polar blast." This cold snap will be followed by another "polar blast." Weatherchannel forcast:

There was a net increase in natural gas storage last weekend. The curve suggests that historically we should see one more week of net increase in storage.

The market:

-- movers and shakers had already "baked in" the crude oil numbers
-- no one seems worried about supply of natural gas
-- so, we'll see