Over at SeekingAlpha:
- wide Midland differentials will continue to create issues for operators
- ECA is protected in 2018 and 90% of Midland barrels will be unaffected in 2019
- ECA has the ability to increase production in the Eagle Ford, as those horizontals are outperforming Midland
- Permian differentials continue to widen. This will be difficult for operators as realized prices continue lower. We saw take away issues in the Bakken before the DAPL, and some analysts believe it will continue through the end of 2019. ECA is uniquely positioned due to 90% of its Midland barrels being protected from logistical issues. If ECA needs to increase production, it is able to do so in the Eagle Ford where differentials are tight.
Investing in unconventional oil producers is difficult. Volatility can be extreme, as there are many moving parts to consider. The Eagle Ford, Bakken, Permian, STACK/SCOOP, and Niobrara all have good and bad points.
The Permian was thought of as the best play going into 2018, but now we are seeing worries related to widening differentials.
This has occurred in the past with respect to other plays, like the Bakken. Well costs in the Permian are also rising, and this is another variable to watch. When looking at operators through 2018 and 2019, logistics must be considered. Options in other plays are also important. The industry has recorded some recent massive well results in the Eagle Ford. This could provide an increase in EV/EBITDA for operators in and around Karnes County.More:
In 2017, ECA completed 37 horizontals in Karnes County. Some of these locations were huge. One location produced 409 MBO in 10 months.
The average of those 37 wells was reduced significantly by the handful of poor producers. Ten locations produced more than 200 KBO in the first 10 months of well life.
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The Sports Page
Updates
Later, 1:09 p.m. CDT: I came home at lunch to catch "Power Lunch" on CNBC. It's been a huge day for the market (the Dow is up over 305 points) and this evening President Trump in prime time will announce him nominee for the Supreme Court. And what are they talking about over at "Power Lunch"? LOL. All of the talking heads were in front of a green screen and a larger-than-life photo of golf courses and Tiger Woods, and they are asking whether Tiger Woods can ever win another tournament -- ah, yes here it is -- the next major tournament is "The Open" which will be televised by NBC. CBS has the PGA Championship, but after that, of the last four tournaments of the year, including the TOUR Championship and the Ryder Cup, NBC has all four. NBC needs to remind folks that Tiger Woods can still win. As I've said before, Tiger Woods may be playing as well as he has ever played; the problem: the younger folks coming up the leader board are playing better. My hunch is that as Tiger Woods gets closer to the CUT line on Friday, the more aggressive he will have to play, making it even more difficult for him. The same is true on Sunday if he's within two or three strokes of the leader.
But eleven strokes back (and coming in fourth) from the leader in a no-name tournament (see below) with no-names competitors is not a good sign.
Original Post
[Originally posted in draft on July 1, 2018 -- brought forward.]
From Golf Week:
Rickie Fowler, at 29 and in his ninth PGA Tour season, is still stuck at zero major-championship victories – and he knows it.Rickie Fowler is the only "other" name I recognize at the Quicken Loans TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms. Not quite accurate; going through the list again, I see Stewart Cink, and maybe a few others, if I really stretch my memory.
The "only" reason PGA "fair weather" fans are watching this tournament today is because Tiger Woods is still in it, tied for ninth, or thereabouts.
I assumed Tiger was in this tournament because he was looking for a win. The names on this list looks like the JV team of the PGA. This is like the Infinity (the "Saturday") race for NASCAR. If it were professional football it would be a Canadian Football League game or an arena football game. Whatever.
But wow, what a dismal line-up against which Tiger is playing. And he's in ninth place and not really improving his position, now about halfway through for the day. [In an incredibly weak field, Tiger placed fourth, 11 strokes under par; the winner, an Italian won, 21 strokes under par. Ricky Fowler, 8 strokes below par, finished twelfth.]
Anyway, for newbies, here's the background for this particular tournament over at GolfDigest.
Nearly 10 years ago—July 5, 2007 to be precise—that 120 players teed off in the first round of the inaugural AT&T National at Congressional Country Club.
The buzz around the event was only slightly below what one might expect at a major championship. After all, the tournament host was Tiger Woods—the No. 1 player in the world who had already won 12 major championships at age 31.
Congressional was a major-championship-caliber site, having held two U.S. Opens and a PGA Championship.
And the Washington, D.C., market, which had been thirsting for a big-time event after years holding what locals perceived as a second tier (at best) PGA Tour stop, finally had the sort of tournament it believed it deserved. In turn, Congressional was overrun with fans, and sponsors couldn’t sign up for corporate tents fast enough. A year after abandoning Washington, and the former Booz-Allen Classic, the PGA Tour came back to town, led by Woods on his white horse.Now, flash forward to July 1, 2018, and it seems the event is even more trivial, more sad, more pathetic.
While Woods was certainly the major attraction, the quality of the invitational field was remarkable. Even Phil Mickelson, Woods’ long-time rival and nemesis, came to play. In all, there were 13 major champions competing, and three others who would subsequently win majors. Even without Woods’ 12 titles, the other 12 golfers had combined to win 18 majors to that point.
Flash forward to Thursday morning, June 29, 2017, when the 11th playing of the tournament with a different corporate sponsor (Quicken Loans) began. Woods was not only unable to play, after undergoing a fourth back surgery, but not even on site, dealing with the pain-killer issues that surfaced after his arrest for DUI over Memorial Day weekend.
The tournament site isn’t Congressional, but rather TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm (a name most people say incorrectly), a revamped course that hosted the previous tour event for most of 20 years to decidedly mixed reviews. “It isn’t as if Avenel is a bad golf course,” Davis Love III once said. “It just doesn’t look very good if you have to drive by Congressional to get to it.”
In a twist, it was Love who was hired to renovate the golf course in 2006. Now, players like it much better. But not THAT much better.
On another note:
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