Closing Out The Poll -- Brett Kavanaugh -- July 9, 2018

It's a wonderful world ...

Wonderful World, Sam Cooke
President Trump will name his Supreme Court nominee tonight. It comes down to this:

• one of the male nominees most likely to be nominated "passes" the Dems' litmus test on abortion (Susan Collins is with the Dems on this one)
• one of the male nominees and the only woman on the "known" list of four "fails" the Dems' litmus test on abortion (Susan Collins is with the Dems on this one)
• so, if Trump wants the nominee to be on the bench by October 1, 2018, when the new term starts, he needs to name "the" male
• if President Trump wants to risk having the first nominee defeated, and prolonging the confirmation, process, he will name "the" female
• my hunch: he wants the court to be "full" / complete as of October 1
• if so, then he appoints "the" male 
• that's too bad because I would like to see another woman on the court (so would many Americans, I assume, but the litmus test pretty much eliminates the woman candidate most likely on the short list)

The results of the poll:

• a male: 46%
• a female: 41%
• a transgender: 4%
• other: 10% (I can't even imagine what "other" would be)
• bottom line: respondents are pretty much split

We'll know at 9:00 p.m. Eastern time if the name is not leaked sooner.

The short list according to "everyone":

• all are federal appellate judges:  
• Amy Coney Barrett of the Seventh Circuit; very, very recent; a scholar, not a judge (yet); 
  
• Brett M. Kavanaugh of the District of Columbia Circuit, DC, in George Bush's circle;
• Raymond M. Kethledge of the Sixth Circuit, Michigan; and,
• Thomas M. Hardiman of the Third Circuit -- many think he was #2, when Trump went with Gorsuch

My odds if I were a betting man, and I'm not (using the $2 horse racing payoff system):

• 1000/1: Barrett
• 100/1:  someone not on the list
• 40/1: Kavanaugh
• 2/1: Kethledge
• 1/1: Hardiman 

I was definitely wrong. Drudge had it right. Again. Amazing.

Posted on Drudge about one hour before the announcement:

Following his speech and listening to his short bio it's hard to believe he's considered "controversial." Teaches at Harvard, Yale, and Georgetown. Catholic. Jesuit. Impeccable credentials. ABC has already labeled him as "controversial." I doubt most of those calling him "controversial" could even hold a candle to him, as they say.

From CNN later (this is why I did not think it would Kavanaugh):

Kavanaugh, who currently serves on the DC Court of Appeals, was not the favorite of the most conservative voices in the party who worried about his commitment to getting rid of the Affordable Care Act. Neither was he seen as a particularly Trump-y pick due to Kavanaugh's long ties to the Bush family; he served in the solicitor general's office in the administration of George H.W. Bush and then as staff secretary for President George W. Bush. Nor was he seen as the preferred choice of Senate institutionalists like Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.), who worried that his long history of opinions on the circuit court might complicate his confirmation process.