The World Has 53.3 Years Of Oil Left -- BP

I missed this story over the weekend, posted in USA Today, a short note by Motley Fool on this year's annual BP oil and gas review. This has all been reported previously and/or linked previously;

BP has provided an intriguing update to its global oil reserves estimate in the company's latest yearly review of energy statistics. BP raised its reserve estimate by 1.1% to 1,687.9 billion barrels, which is enough oil to last the world 53.3 years at the current production rates. However, there's likely a lot more oil left in the tank beyond what BP sees today.

A good portion of the growth in global oil reserves in BP's report comes from the United States. According to BP, the U.S. has 44.2 billion barrels of oil reserves, which is 26% higher than it previously thought. It's also quite a bit more optimistic than the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which recently increased its estimate to 33.4 billion barrels of reserves, or 15% more than previously thought.

The overall cause for that surge in oil reserves is that America's shale oil plays -- the Bakken, Eagle Ford and Permian Basin -- are now being unlocked through horizontal drilling technology.

Despite the big boost in reserves over the past year, there appears to be much more oil potential in each shale play, with the Permian Basin really standing out.

As that slide points out, Pioneer Natural Resources now estimates the Spraberry/Wolfcamp shale formations in the Permian Basin contain 75 billion barrels of recoverable oil and gas. That number is actually a major upward revision from last year when Pioneer estimated the two formations held 50 billion barrels of recoverable oil and gas.

If, however, 8% of a trillion-bbl reservoir can be recovered in the Bakken, that's 80 billion bbls of recoverable oil in the Bakken. I think the most optimistic number is about 45 billion bbls from the Bakken. 

On another note, think about this: 53.3 years of oil left at the current rate of consumption and current reserve estimates. The large increase in recoverable reserve estimates is due to fracking. Something tells me fracking is not going to go away.