Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Wow, What An Incredible Day For The Bakken, For The Market, For Oil ...

... nothing but blue skies, I see, today. Nothing but blue skies from now on.....thank you, Janet Yellen.

Blue Skies, Willie Nelson


I'll be off the net for awhile.

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Don sent me this link, another SeekingAlpha story on KOG. I wasn't going to open it. KOG is the darling of Wall Street.  It's easy to find another good news story on KOG. But for some reason (boredom?) I went to the link. I was pleasantly surprised; the contributor is one I appreciate and trust: Bret Jensen. Remember the days when KOG was losing a penny/share or maybe earning a penny/share every quarter? Look at this from Bret:
In addition to Kodiak's substantial production increases, earnings are increasing at a nice clip. The company earned 47 cents a share in FY2012 and should have earned ~65 cents a share for FY2013 when it reports its last quarterly earnings of the fiscal year at the end of this month. Analysts have over 90 cents a share in profit pegged for FY2014 in the current earnings consensus.
Given these significant increases in earnings & revenues, the stock is too cheap at just over 12x this year's expected earnings; a ~20% discount to the overall market multiple. The shares also have one of the lowest five year projected PEGs (.30) of the E&P stocks I cover. Finally I continue to believe the company would make a logical acquisition target if M&A activity in the sector picks up. 
Regular readers are very, very aware that operators have been putting in "seed corn" since 2007, at almost $2 billion/month in the Bakken. At some point that seed corn would be producing a crop ripe for harvest.

KOG has outstanding Bakken acreage, just not very much.

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