Link here.
The Director's Cut is out, January 15, 2016, with November, 2015, data.
North Dakota oil production for the month of November increased by about 0.4%, almost a 5,200 bopd increase compared to the previous month, October, 2015.
Because so much is carried forward from previous posts, there are likely to be errors in previous data; I would go to the source if this information is important to you.
Top four producing oil fields in the Bakken at this link.
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Some data points of interest with regard to the Red Queen
Number of producing wells
- November, 2015: 13,077 (preliminary, decreased from last month)
- October, 2015: 13,190 (final revised, new all-time high)
Daily oil production (bopd):
- November, 2015: 1,176,314 (preliminary)
- October, 2015: 1,171,119 (final, revised)
- Delta: 5,195/ 1,171,119 = 0.44% increase month-over-month
- October: oil/well/day: 88.79 bopd
- November: oil/well/day: 90.00 bopd
Director's Cut
November 2015 Data
November, 2015, data here.I track the "cuts" here.
Disclaimer: this update is always done in haste; typographical and factual errors are likely. This is for my use only. If this is important to you, you should go to the source.
Note: facts and opinions are interspersed in the note below. Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on what is posted below; there will be factual and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source.
The November data is posted at this link:
Important data points:
- Today, pricing: $20.00
- Bakken price in December: $27.57
- Fracklog: 969 (6 less than at end of October, previous reporting period)
- Completions: 26 (43 in October, 2015) -- wells continue to go into SI/NC status
- Statewide flaring: 16% (up a bit from 14% last month)
- 1,176,314 - 1,171,119 = 5,195
- 5,195/ 1,171,119 = 0.44% increase month-over-month
- November, 2015: 1,176,314 (preliminary)
- October, 2015: 1,171,119 (final, revised)
- September, 2015: 1,162,159 (final, revised)
- August, 2015: 1,187,631 (final, revised)
- July, 2015: 1,206,996 (final, revised)
- June, 2015: 1,211,328 (final)(second highest; highest was December, 2014)
- May, 2015: 1,202,615 (final)
- April, 2015: 1,169,045 (final)
- March, 2015: 1,190,502 (final); 1,190,582 bopd (preliminary)
- February, 2015: 1,178,082 bopd (revised, final); 1,177,094 (preliminary)
- January, 2015: 1,191,198 bopd (all time high was last month)
- December, 2014: revised, 1,227,483 bopd (all-time high)
- November, 2015: 13,077 (preliminary, decreased from last month)
- October, 2015: 13,190 (final revised, new all-time high)
- September, 2015: 13,036 (final revised -- new all-time high)
- August, 2015: 13,031 (final revised -- new all-time high)
- July, 2015: 12,965 (final revised -- new all-time high)
- June, 2015: 12,868 (final revised -- new all-time high)
- May, 2015: 12,679 (final revised -- new all-time high)
- April, 2015: 12,545 (final revised -- new all-time high)
- March, 2015: 12,443 (final revised -- new all-time high)
- February, 2015: 12,199 (final revised -- new all-time high)
- January, 2015: 12,181 (preliminary -- new all-time high)
- December, 2014: 12,134 (preliminary, new all-time high)
- November, 2014: 11,951 (revised); 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)
- October, 2014: 11,892; revised 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)
- December, 2015: 98 (steep decline; new record)
- November, 2015: 125
- October, 2015: 152
- September, 2015: 154
- August, 2015: 153
- July, 2015: 233
- June, 2015: 192
- May, 2015: 150
- April, 2015: 168
- March, 2015: 190
- February, 2015: 197
- January, 2015: 246
- December, 2014: 251
- All-time high was 370 in 10/2012
- Today, 2015: $20.00 (now lower than the previous low-point since Bakken play began was $22.00 in December 2008)
- December, 2015: $27.57
- November, 2015: $32.16
- October, 2015: $34.37
- September, 2015: $31.17
- August, 2015: $29.52
- July, 2015: $39.41
- June, 2015: 47.73
- May, 2015: $44.70
- April, 2015: $38.33; $36.25 (lowest since February, 2009, and January, 2015) (all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)
- March, 2015: $31.47
- February, 2015: $34.11
- January, 2015: $31.41
- December, 2014: $40.74
- Today: 65 - lowest since November, 2009, when it was 63 (all time high was 218 on 5/29/2012)
- December: 65
- November: 64
- October: 68
- September: 71
- August: 74
- July: 73
- June: 78
- May: 83
- April: 91 (lowest since January 2010)
- March: 108
- February: 133
- January: 160
- December, 2014: 181
The number of well completions fell sharply from 43 (final) in October to 26 (preliminary) in November.Drilling rig count:
- has decrease 15 so far in January, 2016; dropped 1 from October to November, 2015
- dropped 3 from September to October, 2015
- dropped 5 from June to July
- dropped 5 from May to June
- dropped 8 from April to May
- dropped 17 from March to April 8
- dropped 25 February to March
- dropped 27 from January to February
- dropped 7 from November to December
- dropped 21 from December to January
- dropped 23 from January to date of previous month's Director's Cut
- November: 26 (preliminary)
- October: 43 (final)
- September: 123 (final)
- August: 115 (final)
- July: 119 (final)
- June: 149 (final)
- May: 116 (final)
- April: 102 (final -- astounding drop)
- March: an astounding 194 (final)
- February: 42
- January: 63
- December: 173 (preliminary)
- November: 48
- no significant precipitation events
- 5 days with wind speeds in excess of 35 mph (too high for completion work)
- no days with temperatures below -10F
- At the end of November: 969 wells waiting to be completed; 6 less than at the end of October
- At the end of October, an estimated 975 wells waiting to be completed; 105 less than at the end of September (per NDIC) -- 1,091 - 975 = 116
- At the end of September, an estimated 1,091 wells were waiting to be completed; 98 more than the end of August (per NDIC)
- At end of August, an estimate 993 wells waiting to be completed; 79 more than end of July
- At end of July, an estimated 914 wells waiting to be completed, 70 more than at end of June
- At end of June, an estimated 844 wells waiting to be completed
- At end of May, an estimated 925 wells were waiting to be completed, no change
- At end of April, an estimated 925 wells were waiting to be completed, an increase of 45
- At end of March, an estimated 880 wells were waiting to be completed, a decrease of 20
- At end of February, an estimated 900 wells waiting to be completed, an increase of 75
- March, 2015, Director's Cut -- 825 wells -- an increase of 75-- January data
- Previous Director's Cut -- 750, a decrease of 25
- capture target, current, January - December, 2015: 77% (had been 80%)
- capture target, April, 2016 - October, 2016: 80% (had been 90%)
- capture target, November, 2016 - October, 2018: 85%
- capture target, November, 2018 - October, 2020: 88%
- capture target, after October, 2020: 91%
- flaring capture percentage in November: 84% (slightly down from October); percent flared 16%
- flaring capture percentage in October: 86%; percent flared 14%
- finally, the Tioga gas plant was down to 71% of capacity, well below the 85% capacity reported last month (and that was down slightly from previous month) capacity (92% last month; 90% prior; and, 93% previous to that)
- the Lake Sakakawea gas gathering expansion project was approved, but it was approved too late for the 2015 construction season, resulting in a one-year delay.
- statewide: 84% (October 2014 target was 74%; CY 2015 capture target is 77%)
- FBIR Bakken: 86% (same as last month)
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