Active Rigs Set New Post-Boom Low -- 81 -- May 18, 2015; Too Much Takeaway Capacity Being Built In The Bakken? RBN Energy

Trivia: Honda's aeronautic division is headquartered here in the United States. Who would have thought? Being reported everywhere; this from Time Magazine:

The jet is Honda’s first commercial aircraft, produced by its North Carolina-based Honda Aircraft division. The potential FAA approval puts the plane on pace for delivery to customers around the middle of this year, the Journal reports.

The Journal article is much more complete. I wish I could have used that link first but my contract required a non-Journal link.

*************************************

COP to maintain CAPEX for next three years. Will focus on Eagle Ford and the Bakken.

From the department of meaningless statistics, EIA "energy cookie"

In the United States, petroleum is by far the most-consumed transportation fuel. But recently the share of fuels other than petroleum for U.S. transportation has increased to its highest level since 1954, a time when the use of coal-fired steam locomotives was declining and automobile use was growing rapidly. The recent increase can be mostly attributed to increased blending of biomass-based fuels with traditional vehicle fuels and growing use of natural gas in the transportation sector. --- EIA

*******************************

Bakken

Active rigs:

	5/18/2015	05/18/2014	05/18/2013	05/18/2012	05/18/2011
Active Rigs	81	190	189	209	175

RBN Energy -- too much pipeline takeaway being built in the Bakken? Link here. This is a must-read article for those interested in the Bakken. A reminder: this story will be archived by the source at the source.

We should point out that (unlike our chart) in the real world, takeaway capacity is not used up either in order of construction or in order of transport mode. That means Bakken takeaway capacity is now and will remain a mixture of rail and pipeline – based on shipper demand to reach particular markets.

The NDPA estimated that, in March 2015, rail capacity was being used to transport 54% of North Dakota crude production to market – a volume estimated at somewhere in the range of 650 to 700 Mb/d – with pipelines only accounting for 40% of shipments. Those numbers reflect the preference for Bakken producers to ship their crude to East Coast refineries that are best reached by rail because there are no major crude pipelines from the Midwest to the East Coast. Bakken crude is also shipped by rail to refineries in the Pacific Northwest for similar reasons.

As we explained back in February, rail continues to be favored in North Dakota because pipeline alternatives only ship crude to more competitive markets like the Texas Gulf Coast where large volumes of similar light sweet crude from the Permian and Eagle Ford basins compete for refiner’s attention. In the circumstances and given that East and West Coast refiners have invested in rail infrastructure, they remain the primary buyers of Bakken crude today.

All of that may change in 2017 when two new pipelines are expected online.

The first of these is the Energy Transfer Partners/Phillips 66 Dakota Access pipeline that would ship 450 Mb/d of Bakken crude to the Midwest and then to Nederland on the Texas Gulf Coast as well as St. James, LA (see My Head’s In Mississippi). This will be the first pipeline offering Bakken shippers direct pipeline access to Mississippi region refineries – replacing existing rail shipments of about 150 Mb/d.

The second new pipeline expected in 2017 is the 225 Mb/d Enbridge Sandpiper that will offer Bakken shippers access to Eastern Canadian refineries in Sarnia and Quebec via various pipelines that are part of that company’s “Light Oil Market Access” project that we detailed in our “Take A Pipe On The East Side” last year. Sandpiper will also increase access to Midwest refineries owned by anchor shipper Marathon Petroleum Company. These two pipelines account for most of the big jump in the red line in Figure #2 at the start of 2017 and will considerably diversify the pipeline market destinations available to Bakken shippers.

Which brings us back to our original question – will the extra 220 Mb/d of pipeline capacity on the proposed Upland pipeline be needed in 2019 and if not – what route to market will it’s shippers defect from? We will address that question in the next episode in this series.

******************************

Cement

This was an unfortunate day to forget my camera. There must be not less than 20 cement trucks across the median, about 100 yards (football field) away from me -- pouring in more parking lot for not less than eight (8) new big box stores going in. This is in addition to several new big box stores (including large franchise restaurants like Dave and Buster's) that have already gone in. This is at the intersection of Grapevine, Colleyville, and Euless, northwest of Ft Worth.