Tuesday, May 15, 2012

New Poll: Will The Seaway Reversal Narrow The WTI-Brent Spread?

Updates


May 19, 2022: reversal. WTI priced higher than Brent.

February 11, 2022: WTI - $91.17; Brent - $92.68.

March 21, 2016: futures; spread is $0.01

February 15, 2016: the spread is widening moving into mid-February; it is currently about $3.00 - $4.00.

December 22, 2015: at parity in the "front month." Spread: $0.00.

June 10, 2014: Brent - $109.74; WTI - $104.49. Spread: $5.24.

April 9, 2014: Brent - $107.98; WTI - $103.34. Spread: $4.64.  

August 16, 2013: At Bloomberg energy, Brent - $110.04; WTI - $107.75. Spread: $2.29.

August 1, 2013: At Bloomberg energy, Brent - $109.28; WTI - $107.69. Spread: $1.60.

July 23, 2013: At Bloomberg energy, Brent - $108.46; WTI - $107.14. Spread: $1.30. The price of Bakken at Clearbrook is no longer available from Bloomberg without a very expensive subscription.

July 18, 2013: At Bloomberg energy, Brent - $108.77; WTI - $108.33. Spread: 44 cents. The price of Bakken at Clearbrook is no longer available from Bloomberg without a very expensive subscription.


July 17, 2013:  At Bloomberg energy, Brent - $109; WTI - $106. Spread: $3. The price of Bakken at Clearbrook is no longer available from Bloomberg without a very expensive subscription.

April 26, 2013:  At Bloomberg energy, Brent - $103; WTI - $93. Spread: $10. The price of Bakken at Clearbrook is no longer available from Bloomberg without a very expensive subscription. The $10 spread is the narrowest spread in a very, very long time; said to be due to lowered outlooks on global growth, not due to less glut at Cushing.

April 8, 2013:  At Bloomberg energy, Brent - $104; WTI - $93. Spread: $11. The Bakken premium at Clearbrook, MN, dropped 180% overnight, now trading to a discount to WTI at $1.00/bbl.

March 26, 2013:  At Bloomberg energy, Brent - $109; WTI - $96. Spread: $13. Bakken premium at Clearbrook, MN: + 50 cents. (Reminds me of a musical group.)

March 14, 2013:  At Bloomberg energy, Brent - $111; WTI - $93. Spread: $18. At COB, interestingly enough, the CNBC crawler showed the Brent-WTI spread to be $16.26, one of the narrowest spreads in quite some time. Bakken discount at Clearbrook, MN: -25 cents.

March 5, 2013:  Bakken premium at Clearbrook, MN: +1.50 cents.

Elsewhere, look what they are getting for Bakken crude oil: $98/bbl. 
 
February 15, 2013: 
At Bloomberg energy, Brent - $117; WTI - $95. Spread: $22.
February 11, 2013:  At Bloomberg energy, Brent - $118; WTI - $97. Spread: $21.
February 6, 2013:  At Bloomberg energy, Brent - $118; WTI - $97. Spread: $21.
February 5, 2013:  At Bloomberg energy, Brent - $117; WTI - $97. Spread: $20.

RBN Energy notes the spread is worsening; unexpected; decision changed -- operators will now reverse the flow of the nation's largest continental pipeline, the Capline (runs from Louisiana to Illinois)
February 4, 2013:  At Bloomberg energy, Brent - $116; WTI - $96. Spread: $20.
February 1, 2013:  At Bloomberg energy, Brent - $117; WTI - $98. Spread: $19.
January 21, 2013: At Bloomberg energy, Brent - $112; WTI - $95.62. Spread: $16.
January 17, 2013: At Bloomberg energy, Brent - $110.86; WTI - $95.62. Spread: $15.
January 14, 2013: At Bloomberg energy, Brent - $111; WTI - $93.64. Spread: $17.

January 11, 2013: Seaway pipeline expansion AND reversal back on line.

August 10, 2012: At Bloomberg energy, Brent - $113.28; WTI - $92.30. Spread: $21.
August 1, 2012: At Bloomberg energy, Brent - $105.99; WTI - $88.91. Spread: $17.
July 18, 2012: At Bloomberg energy, Brent - $105.95; WTI - $89.83. Spread: $16.
June 18, 2012: At Bloomberg energy, Brent - $95.78; WTI - $83.27. Spread: $12.
June 12, 2012: At Bloomberg energy, Brent - $97.21; WTI - $83.13. Spread: $14.
June 7, 2012: At Bloomberg energy, Brent - $102.14; WTI - $86.40. Spread: $16.  

Seaway crude finally reaches the Gulf.

June 1, 2012: At Bloomberg energy, Brent - $99.84; WTI - $86.53. Spread: $13.
May 31, 2012: At Bloomberg energy, Brent - $103.83; WTI - $87.43. Spread: $17.
May 30, 2012: At Bloomberg energy, Brent - $103.74; WTI - $87.90. Spread: $16.
May 29, 2012: At Bloomberg energy, Brent - $107.64; WTI - $90.66. Spread: $17.
May 25, 2012: At Bloomberg energy, Brent - $107.69; WTI - $90.38. Spread: $18 - widened by a bit.
May 24, 2012: At Bloomberg energy, Brent - $107.67; WTI - $90.91. Spread: $17.

May 22, 2012: At Bloomberg energy, Brent - $109.94; WTI - $92.20. Spread: $18.

May 22, 2012: Apparently the oil is starting to flow in the Seaway

May 21, 2012: At Bloomberg energy, Brent - $109.14; WTI - $91.80. Spread: $17.

May 21, 2012: Modifications complete; oil will start flowing this weekend (~ May 27, 2012).

May 18, 2012: At Bloomberg energy, Brent - $108.26; WTI - $92.31. Spread: $16.

May 17, 2012: At Bloomberg energy, Brent - $110.23; WTI - $93.60. Spread: $17.

CNBC talking head says the spread has come down about $4 since the Seaway reversal, although I may have misheard. On May 15 the spread was $17; yesterday, the spread was $18; the spread today, the day the reversal is to take effect, is $17. 
May 16, 2012: At Bloomberg energy, Brent -- $111.38; Dated Cushing -- $93.12; the spread is $18.
CNBC spokesperson at 1:00 p.m. noted that the WTI-Brent spread was widening, the exact opposite that was supposed to happen with the Seaway reversal. 
Original Post

The results of the last poll reveal that 30 percent of respondents have absolutely no interest in the Eagle Ford.

Time for a new poll.

The Seaway reversal is slated to occur this Thursday, May 17, 2012. When this reversal was initially proposed there seemed to be universal agreement that the result would be a narrowing of the spread between WTI and Brent. Since then, folks following this story say the impact has become less clear.
What do you think? Will the reversal narrow the spread or have no impact.

Yes, I know. One can find almost any price for WTI or Brent if one looks hard enough, so it will be a judgment call over time with regard to the results. Perhaps I should have added a fourth choice: "whatever."

Further confusing matters, there is a WTI-Bakken spread. Perhaps more later.

Bloomberg energy:
  • May 15, 2015, 9:45 a.m.: WTI Cushing oil - $95.23; Brent - $112.15. Spread of $17.