National Day Of Mourning -- President Carter -- Business As Usual Comes To A Halt -- January 9, 2025

Locator: 44645B. 

From overseas: why does The Daily [London] Mail always do such a better job than US media. Much of the information presented here I have not seen elsewhere. Link here.

Topics on live/streaming television this morning coming out of southern California:

Southern California: local newscasters a bit more upbeat as the winds die down. From 70+ mph winds down to gusts of only 65+ mph. This was at 3:05 a.m. Pacific Time. "It won't be until late Friday night that we get a big break (with regard to wind, humidity)." 

Palisades Fire: at 17,234 acres; 0% contained. Reminder: the Malibu Fire in 2018 started November 8, 2018, and was not fully contained until November 21, 2018. That fire burned just shy of 100,000 acres. Link here. The difference: the number of structures destroyed. Malibu, 2018: 1,643; Palisades, to date: 2,000+ -- which is why CNN is reporting this is the worst such fire in LA's history.

Los Angeles fire department budget cut:

With inflation: budget should have been increased by 5 to 15%; not decreased by 2%, so we have a 7 to 17% deficit / swing.

With recent history: we know that dollar damage from these fires will only get worse, which adds another 5 to 15% need. So that 2% cut is a ridiculous headline. Another example of reporters failing to ask the "right" question.

Water: it turns out that the "big story" coming out of this horrendous story did turn out to be "water." The issue was brought up first by a private realtor which the city was quick to deny.

Most amazing: water drops from the air seem to be incredibly effective. But it seems the "drops" are few and far in between. [Just after posting that, the live stream is talking about the lack of air drops. Apparently they have "one" helicopter." The city is able to drop water from the air 24 hours/day. The limiting factor: high wind, which is currently not a problem. But "one" helicopter? How many helicopters would $20 million buy?

Planning; the city was prepared for one major fire, maybe two major fires, but not at all prepared for more than that. Per LAFD chief in early press conference. Pasadena/Altadena fire chief alluded to the same: simply not prepared for the worst. With all the emphasis on global warming since 1994 and concerns for such fires, it's surprising not more was done with regard to "infrastructure" to prepare for fire situations getting worse.

California GDP / national GDP: will be interesting to watch over the next twelve months.

California housing insurance, from Bloomberg today:

The conflagrations tearing across Los Angeles are on track to be among the most expensive wildfire disasters in US history, draining insurance coffers and threatening California’s massive state-sponsored insurance program. 

Losses from the fires “could push insurance markets over the brink in California,” said Michael Wara, a senior researcher for climate and energy at Stanford University and a wildfire expert. 

It’s an unprecedented test of the FAIR plan, the state-sponsored insurer of last resort. 

Pacific Palisades is the high-cost neighborhood at the center of the Palisades Fire. 

The FAIR plan has seen its exposure there skyrocket to $5.89 billion. Its policies in one ZIP code central to Pacific Palisades grew 85% between 2023 and 2024. 

Read More: Insurers of Last Resort’ Are Absorbing Trillions in Housing Risk.

At least three fires continued to spread rapidly on Wednesday, more than a day after the initial fire outbreak. The Palisades Fire destroyed 300 structures and 13,306 remain threatened. The Hurst Fire, burning northwest of Los Angeles and Burbank, has threatened another 40,000 buildings, while the Eaton Fire burning near Pasadena has endangered more than 28,000 structures.

From wiki:

EVs: yet to be talked about -- fire departments not concerned about ICE vehicles exploding or burning; they are incredibly concerned about EVs burning and exploding. Yet to be talked about.

Water: more and more reports coming in from reporters "boots on the ground" -- firemen have no water to put out fires.

Local: that northern Texas storm has not yet affected us in the DFW area. It's 30°F right now, at 5:09 a.m. CT.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $73.38.

New wells:

• Friday, January 10, 2025: 15 for the month, 15 for the quarter, 15 for the year,
• 40084, conf, Hess, EN-Halvorson-157-93-3229H-5,
• Thursday, January 9, 2025: 14 for the month, 14 for the quarter, 14 for the year,
• 40758, conf, Neptune Operating LLC, Lee South 17-8-5 7H,
• 40563, conf, Empire North Dakota LLC, Sandpiper 29 1H,

RBN Energy: final rules for 45V tax credit coudl help clear a path for clean hydrogen. 

The long-delayed rules around the federal government’s Hydrogen Production Tax Credit (PTC), also known as 45V, had been the subject of heated debate — and lobbying — since passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) way back in August 2022. But after more than a year of speculation — and with the Biden administration in its last days — the final rulemaking has at last been published. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at how the final rulemaking compares with the initial guidelines established in December 2023, detail the key areas where the rules have been made more lenient, and explain why clean hydrogen still faces an uncertain future, while also previewing our first Drill Down report of 2025. 

There was a lot of enthusiasm around hydrogen after passage of the IRA, with the initial guidance around the PTC widely expected to be announced within a year, or by August 2023. It soon became clear that extensive debates over the rulemaking continued inside the Biden administration and that informal deadline came and went without much notice. The initial guidance was finally rolled out in late December 2023, which closely followed a draft that was leaked a couple weeks earlier. Publication of the proposed rulemaking then began a 60-day comment period.