My Favorite Chart -- October 25, 2022

Anecdote: my mother and father amassed a small estate -- starting out in life in the 1920s with "nothing." That small estate -- and by many standards -- was very small -- was enough to provide a living income for each of their five surviving children.

They did not die of Covid: my father died before 2020 and my mother died in 2020, but not of Covid, though many of her generation did.

Their estate was passed on to their heirs in the "usual" turn of events, but my father was 96 years of age and my mother was 94 years of age. The estate, besides being passed on "late in life," was greatly impacted by decades of non-earning income years and extraordinary living expenses (two different nursing homes; assisted living expenses). 

With the estate, five highly educated, highly trained workers, at the peak of their earning years were able to retire. And, to varying degrees, they did.

On the other hand, there may have been a million US Americans with small to huge estates that died "unexpectedly" and "prematurely" due to Covid-19 starting in late 2019 and through "today."

For all those dying "prematurely," those estates, small to large were passed on to their heirs (much?) sooner than expected.

In addition, unlike deaths from cancer, Alzheimer's heart disease, Covid-19 deaths were rapid, and all medical expenses paid by insurers and/or the US government. There was no extraordinary nursing care, no assisted living, etc., expenses. 

So, not only did medical expenses NOT impact these estates, but the quick deaths pre-empted huge assisted living expenses that could have dragged on for years and would not have been covered -- for the most part -- by insurers or the US government.

Covid-19 deaths, excess:

Demographics:

• see this post for background;
• in graphic form:

Greatest generational wealth transfer: FA -- October 17, 2022 -- I do believe the writer of this article missed the biggest story line. 

Excess deaths during Covid-19 pandemic, CDC, link here.

Covid-deaths, US, by age group: link to Scientific American.

Now, see if you can connect the dots:

LABOR

Understanding America's labor shortage: link here.

Most analysts track U-3. Not me. U-1. Link here. If one actually looks at the definitions of the various categories, one will understand why I prefer U-1.

INFLATION

 

INVESTING 

Question: if you were 45 years old and your parents passed away "unexpectedly" and "prematurely" leaving you with a huge inheritance, with 50% in equities and bonds, and 50% tied up in a million-dollar house, and you had not planned for their death in 2020, and, worse, you had no experience with investing, what might you do?

MY FAVORITE CHART:

Link here.

 Time for Peter Zeihan to write another book.

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NEXT: SUPPLY CHAIN SHORTAGES

Can anyone explain why supply chain shortages persist. It's been two years now -- certainly the free market capitalistic economies should have "solved" the supply chain shortages by now, but they have not.

I have seen no explanation for this "paradox."

Start here, but this where I'm going go quit for now.

There is one more data point I have not included and that explains the supply chain shortages.