Break break: Forte-One-Two has now crossed the eastern edge of Sicily on its way "home." At approximately 2:30 p.m. CT, Forte-One-Two landed at his home station NAS Sigonella, Catania airport, Sicily.
Now back to the subject at hand:
Years ago I religiously followed the natural gas fill rate thinking it might provide some insight into the price of natural gas going forward. It did not. I quit following the natural gas fill rate about two years ago. The shale revolution changed everything. The fill rate had more to do with political events (legal challenges and protests by faux environmentalists; city and county mandates) than with the oil and gas sector per se. The "Bakken revolution" changed everything.
Likewise, I follow the crude oil supplies on a weekly basis, generally using the weekly EIA petroleum report as the source. I will continue to follow that weekly report, but like the natural gas fill rate, petroleum inventories seem to mean little with regard to long-term price of oil or the trend in the price of oil. Sure, there are abrupt changes in the price of oil when the Cushing inventories are released, but those changes in price are transitory (generally lasting less than 24 hours before the numbers are forgotten and folks move on to something else). Again, the "Bakken revolution" changed everything.
The graph below proves my point. "Everyone" seems concerned about an SPR release for different reasons, but adequate crude oil supply certainly should not be one of those concerns.
Look at the numbers for the past five years and compare that with the "old" five-year average. The SPR does not include all the new pipelines and all the new storage in east Texas following the surge of oil from the Permian.
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