Weekly EIA Petroleum Report -- Pending -- September 29, 2021

Pending home sales, August, 2021: up 8.1% vs 1.2% expectations. These are SIGNED contracts. Huge jump in SIGNED contracts. 

First things first: how did we miss this? Today is National Coffee Day. Many coffee shops offering free coffee. 

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Erdoes: over at JPMorgan, Ms Erdoes has it exactly right in her statement (either today or yesterday; probably yesterday). Mary Callahan at wiki. Paraphrasing:

• investing is a long-term prospect; today, money is a non-earning asset;
• "everyone is talking like Evergrande is a county. It is not; it is a company. It is a big company. But this is not a Lehman Bros moment.

Bernstein Research: recommends Boeing. "The bottom is in." We'll see. Boeing leads the Dow today.

Lucid: market value soaring. Announced that it will release its first luxury sedan by end of October, 2021. Said to have greater range than the Tesla. Factory in Arizona.

Geographic shifts: has anyone noticed? Automobile manufacturing is moving from the Rust Belt and west coast to just south of the Mason-Dixon line, to the Deep South, and to the Southwest.

ISO NE: link here. The wind wasn't blowing early this morning. A lot of expensive Canadian hydroelectricity was required. Spot prices surges to $100/MWh. Things looking better now; wind must be blowing. At rush hour (into work), spot prices down to $45 / MWh. 

Solar: the dirty little secret in the solar PV industry is that the industry relies on a lot of Chinese coal. When Beijing shuts down industries because of a coal shortage, silicon metal prices to through the roof (>150% this month), which in turn will hit polysilicon, and then solar panels. Link here. 

China: will expand coal procurement at "any price to ensure heating and power generation this winter." Why is China saying this now? China doesn't have enough coal for the upcoming winter. Rumor: Greta is being treated for paroxysmal atrial tachycardia.

Weekly EIA petroleum report, link here.

• US crude oil inventories jumped by 4.6 million bbls from last week. Surprise, surprise.
• US crude oil inventories now stand at 418.5 million bbls, 7% below the five-year average.
• US crude oil imports averaged 6.6 million bopd; up by 87,000 bpd from the previous week; over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 6.1 million bpd; 18.7% more than same four-week period last week.
• refiners are operating at 88.1% of their operable capacity.
• distillate fuel inventories increased -- first break in months -- by 0.4 million bbls last week but still 12% below the five-year average.
• total products supplied averaged 20.4 million bbls per day, up an astounding 13.7% from same period last year; need to see comparisons to 2019
• jet fuel supplied was up 64% compared with same four-week period last year. Ditto.