No Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- Update On The Tuscaloosa Marine Shale -- September 24, 2021

China: the electricity shortages in China are worsening ... it's getting so bad, Beijing is now asking some food processors (like soybean crushing plants) to shut down. Link here. 

Jargon: I heard this phrase for the first time the other day on CNBC from one of my favorite analysts: "ROIC greater than WACC." Need to explore. I know nothing about WACC. Link here. "Burggraben" was also new to me. German for "moat."

No surprise: China's central bank bans cryptocurrency. Bitcoin slumps. Link here. 

Apple, Inc: I updated my thoughts on Apple (very, very positive) last night but put the post in draft thinking I was too far ahead of my headlights. Today, it's being reported that my observations were spot on. Now, we have a new rating: a "strong buy" recommendation with a new price of $198, up 35% from current levels. Why don't we just all it $200? Because $198 sounds so much more "real." Link here. 

Unhelpful: another WSJ article on the bottleneck at California ports but no explanation why. Link here.

Covid-19: Alberta -- the oil province -- has by far the highest Covid-19 case numbers among Canadian provinces, and one of the lowest vaccination rates. But apparently holding Covid parties to enhance natural immunity. Link here.

Baker Hughes: warns on energy transition. Link to Irina Slav.  

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: no longer being reported by NDIC. Best estimate: 26*.

$73.28	9/24/2021	09/24/2020	09/24/2019	09/24/2018	09/24/2017
Active Rigs	26*	11	57	64	57

No wells coming off confidential list according to NDIC.

RBN Energy: can higher crude oil prices revive the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale play? Archived.

A long, long time ago — or, more precisely, in the spring of 2014, when WTI was selling for more than $110/bbl — a handful of exploration and production companies were convinced they were onto something big in southwestern Mississippi and east-central Louisiana. 

There, they believed, the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale (TMS) was poised to become the next Bakken, the U.S.’s premier shale play at the time, but even better for producers seeking more robust crude prices because of TMS’s very low gas-to-oil ratio — an oil cut north of 92%! –– and proximity to Gulf Coast refineries. 

While there had been a host of failed efforts by producers to wring out large volumes of premium-priced Louisiana Light Sweet (LLS) oil from the marine shale’s sedimentary silts and clays, the E&Ps felt in their bones that they were finally “cracking the code.” Then, at just the wrong time, came an oil price crash that set the whole industry back on its heels and activity in the TMS quickly slowed to a crawl. As we discuss in today’s RBN blog, an even smaller cadre of Tuscaloosa Marine Shale true believers is now banking on a production revival in the core of the play.