Slawson With Three New Permits; One Permit Renewed -- August 5, 2021

Supply chain shortages: as folks know, there is a shortage of jet fuel as smaller regional airports due to a shortage of truck drivers. One wonders if there could be a beer shortage due to a shortage of trucker drivers servicing Sturgis. One wonders where these bars store all that beer. And all that money. And could Sturgis run out of gasoline for the very same trucker-shortage problem? This will be quite fascinating. 

Sturgis: motorcycle rally starts tomorrow, Friday, August 6, 2021. Why is the byline in this linked story from Sioux Falls, when the rally is outside Rapid City's back door? No reporters dare make the trip? Link here. 

• early estimates of 500,000 have now grown to 700,000
• I assume everyone going is vaccinated -- ROTFL
  

Enerplus: raises dividend by 15%. Link here.

Enerplus: up a bit during the day, but flat after-hours; 2Q21 earnings here;

• closed at $5.82 prior to earnings release;
• EPS: expected -- 34 cents; actual -- a loss of 23 cents per share; but adjusted, ERF reported 26 cents/share -- still missing forecasts;
  
• revenue: expected --- $422.71 million; actual -- pending
• cash flow from operating activities: $136.9 million; $90.6 million a year ago; 
• Williston Basin: 72,390 boepd; 73% crude oil;
• company record: drilled a two-mile lateral section in 48 hours (lateral spud to total depth)
• total well costs now expected to average $5.7 million/well in 2021, a reduction of 25% compared to 2019, and well below the 2021 target of $6.1 million;
  

Louisiana Light: $68.69.

Germany: got rid of its nuclear plants to burn more coal; link here.

• German gas generation falls 35%;
• coal rebounds as margins diverge
• the dirtiest coal, lignite, tops July mix
• TTF front-month hits 2008-high above Eur40/mt
• year-ahead clean spark spread negative first time since 2019
• gas generation totaled 3.3 TWh in July, down 35% y/y as natural gas prices hit the highest levels on record
• from the article:

Challenging conditions for German gas plants are priced to extend into 2022, as Platts year-ahead clean spark spread with CSS (50% efficiency) assessment turned negative on Aug. 4 for the first time since April 2019 as the TTF 2022 gas contract rose above Eur28/MWh.

According to S&P Global Platts Analytics' latest five-year forecast published Aug. 4, German gas-fired output will rise above the 2020 high from next year on the back of nuclear, lignite and coal closures, averaging around 9 GW throughout the forecast period.

All six German reactors are set to shut by the end of 2022, while Germany has auctioned over 8 GW of coal closure compensation since December 2020, bringing 2022 capacity well below 15 GW.

RWE is also set to shut another 2.5 GW of lignite unit, mainly linked to the Hambach mine, by the end of 2022.

Germany's leading candidate to replace Chancellor Angela Merkel after the Sept. 26 election, Armin Laschet (CDU), has rejected calls by the Greens and its sister party CSU to re-negotiate coal exit dates.

Laschet added, however, that higher carbon prices could lead to quicker-than-anticipated coal closures achievable by 2030 in Western Germany.

Short-term prospects for gas-fired generation, meanwhile, may have taken another hit in August delivery, as lower Russian gas flows through Yamal in Germany have given prices one less reason to fall, leaving Europe further exposed to global gas price strength.

After a consistent flow of 81 million cu m/d throughout summer, net imports at Yamal's Mallnow terminus have slipped to 49 million cu m/d. Both German and Polish transit networks have told Platts that this is due to market behavior, and no upstream issues have been reported on the Russian side.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 

$69.09	8/5/2021	08/05/2020	08/05/2019	08/05/2018	08/05/2017
Active Rigs	23*	11	59	64	58

*Active rigs from the daily activity report: shows 23; I didn't go through the list but I assume it's very similar to the one yesterday

Three new permits, #38456 - #38458, inclusive:

• Operator: Slawson
• Field: Big Bend (Mountrail)
• Comments:
• Slawson has permits for a Rainmaker Federal well, a Cougar Federal well, and a Machete Federal well, all in SESE 24-152-93, they will be sited:
• Rainmaker Federal: 300 FSL and 400 FEL
• Cougar Federal: 300 FSL and 350' FEL
• Machete Federal: 300 FSL and 300 FEL

One permit renewed:

• XTO: a Cindy Blikre well, #31747, in Williams County