Richard Zeits On Ten Million BOPD And What It Means For The US, Saudi Arabia -- February 2, 2018

I have a fairly long post with updates regarding all the hand-wringing about "decreased conventional discoveries" and how that will lead to a scarcity of oil in the "near future." Some refer to this as "peak oil."

Richard Zeits has an incredibly good column today over at SeekingAlpha further suggesting that "peak oil" will be pushed further to the right. Archived.

It's one thing to read "ten million bopd" but when one sees the graphic, it's absolutely stunning.

It should be noted that the US is producing way below its potential. The Bakken has about 2,000 wells that are either DUCs or completed/shut in for operational reasons. I don't think 2,000 wells have ever been drilled in one year in North Dakota, even at the peak of the boom. In addition, there are less than 60 active rigs in North Dakota; at the peak of the boom, more than 200. Everyday more and more infrastructure is being put in place in North Dakota. Unfettered, North Dakota will produce 2.2 million bopd.

By the way, this is the third or fourth article by Richard Zeits regarding ultra-lights. Others have referred to 'ultra-lights" as "light ends" and that's how I've tagged articles on "ultra-lights." I may start using both tags ("light ends"; and, "ultra-lights"). 

And then there's the Permian. Oasis just moved into the Permian this past year. And Exxon, too, just moved in this past year. Exxon may not be in a panic, but investors are not happy; something tells me Exxon will hit the Permian, "full speed ahead, damn the torpedoes."

Much could be written but it's easier to just go to the linked article by Zeits.

By the way, the "peak oil" folks are now talking about the end of Tier 1 drilling locations. "Peak oilers" never quit.