Permian Gas Production Affected Adversely By California's Intermittent Energy -- July 17, 2017

Active rigs:

$46.33	7/17/2017	07/17/2016	07/17/2015	07/17/2014	07/17/2013
Active Rigs	59	29	73	196	189

RBN Energy: the near-term potential for Permian gas takeaway constraints.

Permian natural gas production is up nearly 40% over the past three years to 6.3 billion cubic feet/day (Bcf/d), and production could almost double to 12 Bcf/d by 2022. While there is 10.8 Bcf/d of existing gas takeaway capacity out of the Permian — suggesting that takeaway constraints are not imminent — much of the capacity to Mexico is not currently usable because of delays in related power-generation and pipeline projects south of the border.

There also are limits to how much of the gas pipeline capacity from the Permian to California can be used for Permian takeaway, particularly during the off-season, when California can serve much of its incremental power load from hydro, solar and wind.

The Midcontinent (Midcon) and Upper Midwest can only take so much Permian natural gas too; they’re taking gas from almost every direction. Put simply, takeaway constraints out of the Permian may be much closer than they appear. Today we consider existing natural gas takeaway capacity out of the Permian, how it compares with current and projected gas production in the region, and the potential for — and timing of — constraints that could reduce the prices that Permian producers receive for their gas.

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US Interference

Sanctions. Bloomberg is reporting:

A Japanese group’s plans to explore for Russian oil with state-run Rosneft have been stymied by U.S. intervention over sanctions, according to people familiar with the matter.

Washington’s objection to the Japanese project to explore for oil in the ocean off Russia’s Far East shows the U.S. Treasury is maintaining a firm line on sanctions, even as some international companies press on with Russian energy deals. In April, the U.S. turned down a request from Exxon Mobil Corp. for a waiver to allow it to drill with Rosneft in the Black Sea.

Rosneft signed a preliminary deal with a Japanese consortium of Japan Oil, Gas & Metals National Corp., known as Jogmec, Inpex Corp., and Marubeni Corp. for offshore exploration at a license to the south west of Sakhalin Island in December, one of more than 60 agreements and memorandums signed during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Japan.

However, since then the U.S. government has objected to the project, according to two people familiar with the discussions who asked not to be identified discussing a sensitive matter.