Updates
July 11, 2015: this is truly remarkable. Just a few days after the post regarding the LA Times telling folks that their ObamaCare health care premiums were about to skyrocket, here it is in the Wall Street Journal:
Premiums are spiking around the country. Obama is in denial.
The Affordable Care Act was supposed to make insurance, well, more affordable. But now hard results are starting to emerge: premium surges that often average 10% to 20% and spikes that sometimes run as high as 50% or 60% or more from coast to coast.
Welcome to the new abnormal of ObamaCare. This summer insurers must submit rates to state regulators for approval on the ObamaCare exchanges in 2016—and even liberals are shocked at the double-digit requests, or at least the honest liberals are.
Under ObamaCare, year-over-year premium increases above 10% must also be justified to the Health and Human Services Department, and its data base lists about 650 such cases so far.
Original Post
PTI: I'm no conspiracy nut, but one does begin to wonder. This past week, OPM was hacked and personal / personnel data of 22 million Americans stolen; NYSE "crashed" and is down for four hours; United Airlines scheduling system is down for two hours. The NYSE says it was a software update or something along that line -- in the middle of the week during peak trading hours? Sure. Now TD-Ameritrade is reporting a "widespread" order routing problem and says it was due to software update -- in the middle of peak trading hours just before the weekend and when major events are occurring in Greece, and the market is surging 200 points? A software update? Sure.
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US Manufacturing Costs To Meet Chinese Costs In Next Year Or So
US manufacturing costs are projected to fall below those of China due to cheap energy due to fracking -- Boston Consulting Group. This has huge implications for:
- global CO2 emissions (for those who believe; majority of Hispanics "believe" in God and believe that man is causing global warming, especially white men; I'm a denier)
- imports from China
- port activity along the US west coast
- cost of transporting goods to consumers in US
A recent report projected that the cost of manufacturing in the U.S. will fall below costs in China within the next three years, in large part due to the rise of fracking.
Fortune, citing an analysis by Boston Consulting Group, reported that the average cost to produce goods is currently only 5 percent higher in the U.S. than in China, and that the cost is expected to be 2 to 3 percent lower by 2018.
Rising wages in China and increased industrial productivity in the U.S. contributed to that trend, but the report cited hydraulic fracturing as the primary reason for the shift in costs.If I read that correctly, manufacturing costs are 5 percent higher in the US than in China. By 2018, manufacturing costs in the US will be as much as 3 percent lower in the US than in China. Then add in the transportation costs.
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Odds And Ends And Everything In Between
I thought it was only 40,000. I guess the US Army is going to be cut by 60,000 soldiers.
After hackers stole personal data of 22 million Americans from the Office of Personnel Management, the director has resigned. Bloomberg reports that the U.S. government’s human resources director resigned Friday a day after disclosing that hackers stole personal data for more than 22 million people in one of the worst security breaches in history. The real question is who has the data? ISIS or China or Russia? Or all three by now?
Janet Yellen says she expects to start raising interest rates later this year, but "remains concerned about the economy." If she doesn't start to raise rates soon, her window of opportunity will close; she certainly won't want to be blamed for pushing the US into a recession in an election year. The market is certainly due for a correction in the next couple of years and the movers and shakers need something to blame it on. A Yellen-rate-rise (YRR) would be the way to go.
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But You Can Keep Your Doctor
This was blogged/predicted from the very beginning: health care mergers will result in higher premiums. Column in today's Los Angeles Times.
As leading health insurers scramble for market share through a series of multibillion-dollar mergers, consumers are no doubt wondering if their premiums are bound to skyrocket.
Short answer: Probably.
"That's what usually happens when you have less competition," said Erin Trish, a researcher at USC's Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics. "At the same time, though, consolidation among insurers could mean a stronger position in negotiating lower rates with hospitals."
The question, she said, is whether insurers would pass along any savings to policyholders. Past mergers among insurance companies suggest that consumers seldom benefit.
"When insurers merge, there's almost always an increase in premiums," Trish said.Ironically? Give me a break. If you didn't see this coming, you weren't paying attention.
Ironically, Obamacare had anticipated the negative effects of runaway capitalism with a safeguard that critics branded as socialism — the so-called public option, a government-run insurance plan offered alongside private plans.
But the bigger story: mergers + federal exchange = national heath care. See the June 28, 2015, post. Even better, see the October 31, 2013, post -- Halloween -- scary!
For newbies: like AGW, ObamaCare used to concern me. It no longer does. It is what is. Americans have accepted it; the Supreme Court will uphold ObamaCare regardless of the merit of lawsuits against it. I now write less about ObamaCare than I used to now that I understand it and know that it is here to stay. ObamaCare will be modified around the edges, but the key components will be kept: mandated; no pre-existing clauses; no caps; children defined up to 26 years of age; 29-hour work week; manageable penalties for not enrolling.
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