GDP Forecast, 2Q15, Ticks Up -- Now At 2.0 -- June 24, 2015; Greek Deal Collapses

GDP New:

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2015 was 2.0 percent on June 23, up from 1.9 percent on June 16. Following yesterday morning's existing-home sales report from the National Association of Realtors and this morning's reports on sales and prices of new single-family homes from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast for second-quarter real residential investment growth increased from 7.0 percent to 10.0 percent.

By the way, the government is still massaging figures for 1Q15 GDP; this should be the last and final number. Reuters is reporting:  U.S. first-quarter GDP revised to show slight contraction.

The Commerce Department said on Wednesday gross domestic product fell at a 0.2 percent annual rate in the January-March quarter instead of the 0.7 percent pace of contraction it reported last month.

It should be noted that the contraction was blamed on ... drum roll .. cold weather.  ObamaCare was not mentioned. Cold weather in the first quarter is not new; we see that every winter. ObamaCare, on the other hand ... priceless.

Market freaks out, futures slump: Greek deal collapses. Creditors refuse terms. The new terms:

• Greece gets more bailout money
• Creditors get more promises 

"The Greek deal collapses" was a [London] Telegraph headline. In fact, the AP story simply suggests more of the same, that "divisions exist." Remember, this is only June 24th; the IMF payment is due June 30th, and Greece has already telegraphed it "doesn't need no stinking IMF." Not in those exact words.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Yada, yada, yada.*

By the way, remember all those stories about all the money being withdrawn from Greek banks by their citizens? And yet, the Greek government isn't putting an end to those withdrawals. The Greek government is getting the best of both worlds: a) they aren't putting an end withdrawals from their banks; to do so would be a political disaster; and, b) the deposits being taken from the banks are being replaced by non-Greek European funds. The net effect: a continuing bailout. Bloomberg is reporting:

That’s what it’s now doing. While Greece didn’t ask for an increase in assistance on Wednesday, according to a person familiar with the matter, it has needed fresh approval for a higher ELA limit four times in the past week. An ECB spokesman declined to comment on Greece’s ELA requests.

Via the Greek central bank, the ECB is replacing money withdrawn by depositors fearful that the government can’t agree a deal with its creditors, allowing lenders to rack up an overdraft of almost 90 billion euros ($101 billion) since February.

Quite a racket to say the least. The longer this drags out, the more money the Europeans are giving the Greeks.

*Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.