Changing Saudi Perspective -- October 20, 2014

This is from Reuters via Bakken.com, the new "oil numbers" for Saudi Arabia as we move into a brave new world, a world in which there is a tsunami of North America oil coming down the pipelines and the rails.

Saudi crude exports: about 7 million bopd until December, 2014
Saudi exports:

• August, 2014: 6.663 million bopd -- lowest since March, 2011
• July, 2014: 6.989 million bopd 
• June, 2014: 6.946 
• May, 2014: 6.987
• August, 2013: 7.795

Saudi imports into US:

• May to August, 2014: averaged 1.0 to 1.2 million bopd
• mid-2013 to April, 2014: averaged 1.3 to 1.6 million bopd

Saudi domestic oil consumption:

• August usage increases to generate power for air-conditioning
• Saudi launches to new refineries: adds 800,000 bopd in combined capacity
• August, 2014: 2.167 million bopd for refining
• July, 2014: 1.915 million bopd for refining
• August, 2013: 1.551 million bopd for refining

Saudi likes 1.5 million to 2 million bopd spare capacity to cover any unexpected global supply shortage

Saudi's increase in refinery runs presents a new challenge to its role as a swing producer

The EIA has not yet posted the Saudi imports into US for the month of August, 2014. I'm looking for numbers last seen in March, 2009.

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A World Without OPEC

The New York Times is reporting:

“OPEC is not going to survive another 50 years,” Morse told me. “It probably won’t even survive another 10. It has become extremely difficult for them to forge an agreement.”

When Morse and Jaffe wrote their article last year, the price of oil was more than $100 a barrel. Today, the per-barrel price is in the low- to mid-$80s. It has dropped more than 25 percent since June. There was a time when $80 a barrel would have been more than satisfactory for OPEC members, but those days are long gone. Venezuela’s budgetary needs requires that it sell its oil at well above $100 a barrel. The Arab Spring prompted a number of important OPEC members — including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — to increase budgetary spending to keep their own populations quiescent. According to the International Monetary Fund, the United Arab Emirates needs a price of more than $80 to meet its budgetary obligations. That’s up from less than $25 a barrel in 2008.

Not long ago, Venezuela asked for an emergency OPEC meeting to discuss decreasing production. Iran has said that such a meeting is unnecessary. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has made it clear that it is primarily concerned with not losing market share, so it will continue to pump out oil regardless of the needs of other OPEC members. This is not exactly cartel-like behavior. The next OPEC meeting is scheduled for late November, but there is little likelihood of an agreement.

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$2.79

One can easily find gasoline at $2.79 in the DFW area. Unfortunately, in west Los Angeles on Santa Monica Boulevard and Sawtelle Boulevard, the lowest price is still $4.29. At Wilshire and 26th, it's still $4.99. Wow. In Lower Manhattan, $3.99.