Monday, Monday

Active rigs:

	1/6/2014	01/06/2013	01/06/2012	01/06/2011	01/06/2010
Active Rigs	186	179	198	164	78

RBN Energy: Part III in our series -- analyzing the concerns voiced by some as to whether the natural gas renaissance is real and sustainable, with plenty of natural gas at reasonable prices. In Part I we tackled the history of industry regulation before the shale era. In Part II we developed a reasonable demand scenario out to 2025. [Why does our scenario go out to 2025? See the box insert for an explanation.]  Demand estimate of 92.5 Bcf/d represented an upward adjustment of 15.5 Bcf/d over EIA’s 2013 estimate (77 Bcf/d). EBN Energy knew EIA’s demand estimate was balanced with supply at reasonable, stable prices (real, constant-dollar prices staying below $6.00 until the mid-2030s, and even nominal prices staying below $6.00 into the mid-2020s). Our initial goal in this episode was to determine whether our higher total demand estimate could be met without gas prices jumping higher.

Apple:
I am Fanboy #3.

Over the weekend my daughter and I visited the high-end South Coast/Costa Mesa mall on two separate days. I specifically went back to look again at the new 4K/Ultra HD  monitors offered at the Sony store. I used the opportunity to visit the Apple store twice, the Microsoft store twice, and the Sony store twice. The clarity of the 4K/Ultra HD monitors is truly incredible. Sony 4K/Ultra HD players are sold separately. They are not inexpensive, but even the $1,000 monitors can be financed over time, and some financing for some units will go out four years.  The Sony webpage refers  to these at Ultra HD but everywhere else (including inside the Sony store) the term "Blu Ray" is used. This, no doubt, has to do with licensing.

But I completely missed this: Apple quietly retired optical drives (CD and DVD drives) from all their computers except one. Apple is not promoting the one laptop that still has an optical drive but it is clear that Apple is retiring that technology. I seldom use my DVD drive, but I am glad I have it. Something tells me that I will keep this MacBook Pro a lot longer than originally planned simply because it has an optical drive. A bit of me thinks that Apple moved too quickly retiring optical drives, but according to my daughter my other computer companies are going the same route. I occasionally, rarely like to "rip" my own CD for cross-country trips, but I have to admit I don't see the young crowd using CDs any more. They are building their song list on iTunes and then transferring them to their mobile devices (or building their song list on their mobile device to begin with).

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Global Warming

Record-Setting Cold Grips Chicago

Even NBC is reporting that it's cold outside, something the mainstream news media probably just hates to report:

Temperatures in the wake of a stubborn weather pattern that dropped several inches of snow could be summed up in a single word: brutal. At 7 a.m., O'Hare International Airport recorded a temperature of -15, breaking a record low of -14 set on this date in both 1894 and 1988. By 8:30 a.m., the official Chicago temperature had dipped another degree, to -16.

With the wind chill factored in, Monday's temperatures were predicted to be in the -40 to -50 degree range and even lower across the Fox Valley. A Wind Chill Warning that began at 6 p.m. Sunday was scheduled to remain in effect until noon Tuesday.

There's also a possibility the Chicago area could set a new record for the coldest high temperature. The all-time lowest high temp was -11 on Jan. 18, 1994, and Dec. 24, 1983.

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The Wall Street Journal

Is the economy set to take off? Watch these five (5) factors: -- not going to post -- way too geeky, wonky -- nothing helpful, nor actionable.

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Amid national outbreaks of measles, whooping cough and other preventable diseases,

Colorado officials might make it harder for parents to exempt children from vaccinations for school and day care. Colorado is one of 48 states that allow such exemptions for reasons of personal belief or religion—often requiring little more than a parental signature on a form.

In the 2012-2013 school year, about 4.3%, or 2,900 children, were excused from required vaccinations, one of the highest percentages of kindergartners in the nation.But a surge in cases of whooping cough in the state and a spike in measles across the country has the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment weighing new rules.

One possible change would require parents to receive counseling or education on the benefits and risks of vaccination before they can opt out for nonmedical reasons. 

Won't make any difference; folks who don't want their children to get vaccinated will gladly take the courses and argue their points. And probably convince more to stop getting the vaccinations in the process. After all, this is the state that also legalized pot.

On another note, there must be something else going on. If only 4% are not getting their "shots," herd immunity should protect them. My hunch: the numbers are being under-counted, and there is an inconvenient truth who is not getting their vaccinations.

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