Monday -- Baby, It's Cold Outside

Chicago chill: -45 degrees. Next ASCE could be this winter's coldest. Energy emergency in North Dakota, South, Minnesota due to ruptured natural gas pipeline in Canada; propane shortage worsens in the Midwest (some call it an emergency, also). The president will address global warming climate change extreme weather tomorrow night. About time the president proposed a coherent "all the above" energy policy. LOL.

So how cold has it been this month? Chicago CBSlocalis reporting:

Peoples Gas says its customers have used 28 percent more gas this January compared to a year ago.

Nicor says this month has been 30 percent colder than last January; so, its customers are also using more gas.

ComEd says the overwhelming majority of its customers rely on natural gas rather than electric heat.

Active rigs in North Dakota:

	1/27/2014	01/27/2013	01/27/2012	01/27/2011	01/27/2010
Active Rigs	187	190	204	164	86

RBN Energy: the perfect storm -- the polar vortex, the shortage of propane.

Last week the U.S. NGL markets entered uncharted territory.   According to OPIS, cash propane prices in the Conway, KS market reached almost $5.00/gallon for a time, responding to a massive product shortage across the entire eastern half of the country.  But at the same NGL hub, OPIS also reported that the price for ethane/propane mix (EP mix) dropped deep into negative territory at $(0.50)/gallon.  That’s crazy.  The seller is paying the buyer to take the product.  Nothing like this has been seen before in these markets.  Propane inventories continue to drop, transport trucks are moving product hundreds of miles to markets, terminals remain on allocation and a state of emergency has been declared by at least 20 state governors.  The inventory graphs look so scary that the "Black Swan" is frozen stiff.   Today we begin a series on the NGL markets of 2014, a year that this industry will be talking about for a long time.

Cold: on early morning NPR today, eastern North and South Dakota made the news -- incredibly cold weather -- well below 20 and 30 below with wind chill as low as 50 degrees below zero.

The Wall Street Journal

The imperial presidency: Mr Obama has said that he plans to go around Congress (and the people) with unilateral executive orders.  

States weigh how to spend all their money. States are experiencing revenue windfalls, as investors cashed out early to avoid new federal taxes. 

Japanese trade deficit worst on record.

Steel imports into US surge.

For some domestic steel buyers, it is now cheaper to purchase steel from China than from Pittsburgh. The reason: a near-record spread between the prices for almost all kinds of steel in the U.S. and steel prices everywhere else.

The widening spread, attributed to global oversupply and strong demand from car makers, has sparked a surge of imports, which are expected to reach 3.2 million tons in January, up 23% from 2.6 million tons in the same month a year earlier.

The average price difference between the U.S. and China has jumped to $159 per ton; a year ago, U.S. steel was actually $19 a ton cheaper, according to CRU, a price-analysis firm.

Michael's (retail, crafts) warns that it may have become a victim of an attack on its data security --- follows Target, Nieman-Marcus.

P&G sales rise on strong demand from emerging markets. 

Oil pipeline opens; prices surge. Stand-alone post here.

The Los Angeles Times

Later today, after the market closes, Apple will present earnings. The LA Times has a preview -- was it an iPad Christmas (I was surprised to see The LA Times use "Christmas" in a headline):

Apple reports earnings Monday after the stock markets close, and as usual every word and number will be scrutinized for clues that will lead to sweeping judgments about the company's health or decline. 

But in the myriad earnings data points released, one figure will be particularly interesting to see: iPad sales. 

Last fall, after releasing the new iPad Air and the iPad mini with Retina display, Chief Executive Tim Cook declared: "It's going to be an iPad Christmas."

Such bullishness came after what was a surprisingly tough year for Apple's tablet, which had been such a disruptive force since its release in 2010.

After selling a record 22.9 million iPads during the 2012 holiday quarter, the company saw sales of iPads fall for the next three consecutive quarters for the first time in the product's history.

The sales of 14.5 million iPads in the September 2013 quarter was up only slightly from the same period a year earlier. And for the fiscal year 2013 that ended in September, Apple's revenue from iPads grew only 3%.