Thursday -- Jobless Apps Fall Less Than Expected; Rigs Falling In The Bakken; And It's A Wonderful Fall In Dallas; Stepping Stone To National Health Service

Active rigs: 180 (trending down)

RBN Energy: an update on CBR in the Bakken --

Bakken producer wellhead netbacks now favor shipping crude to the East Coast by rail. That is because Brent crude prices are trading more than $13/Bbl above WTI and nearly $11/Bbl higher than Light Louisiana Sweet crude at the Gulf Coast (October 30, 2013). Loading data from North Dakota indicates that volumes being shipped by rail have returned to levels not seen since April although less crude is going to the Gulf Coast. Today we conclude our two part analysis of Bakken producer transport options.

Jobless claims fall less than expected: another stellar ObamanNation report; data points:

• analysts expected the drop to 339,000
• actual drop to 340,000
• worse: four-week average, a better measure, increased by 8,000 to 356,250
• analysts blaming glitches in computers (where have we heard that before?)
• when glitches fixed, some analysts expect numbers to drop to 330,000
• buried very, very deep in the article, this boiler-plate: 

The four-week moving average for new claims, considered a better measure of labour market trends, increased 8,000 to 356,250.

It's interesting to scroll through the weekly summaries at "job watch" to see how little things have actually changed with regard to unemployment claims.  Sad commentary overall. Considering.

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For newbies:  ObamaCare has three parts -- a) the employer mandate; b) the individual mandate; and, c) tax on medical devices.

The employer mandate was delayed for one full year. The individual mandate has been delayed six weeks due to a horrendous rollout on October 1, 2013. There are calls for the employee mandate to be delayed one year; the administration says the process will be fixed by December 1, 2013. I've lost the bubble on the tax on medical devices, and have no interest in it, anyway.

The big insurers are underwriting the employer mandate, but they are pulling out of the individual mandate insurance. The insurers underwriting the individual mandates are undercapitalized new-to-the-game health insurers. Folks who understand how insurance works can already see that the insurers underwriting the individual mandate will go the way of Solyndra over then next two to five years. These insurers have already said the six-week delay for the individual mandate will affect their profits. There is a reason the insurers underwriting the individual mandates are raising their premiums (often doubling their premiums) and canceling existing policies.

But that is all well known.

This is the bombshell: the employer mandate.  Everyone I have talked to, and having read extensively (I spend at least 30 seconds each day reading about ObamaCare, more time than I spend on sports), the majority of Americans are unaffected by ObamaCare because their company health care plan has been unaffected. Those who still have insurance with their employer haven't noticed a change in their insurance programs. So they are all happy. Hello! The employer mandate was extended one year, so of course company health programs have not changed much in the past few months.

There were many reasons that the employer mandate was extended, but I have not seen this reason discussed anywhere. So again, the MillionDollarWay blogspot is providing "new" information, something the site is well known for. LOL.  But I digress.

Just like the individual mandate, the employer mandate was not "ready for prime time." The insurers needed the one-year extension to see/study how the individual mandate was going to roll out. And it's not been a pretty picture.

As the undercapitalized, new-to-the-game insurers of the individual mandate start to exit the game (having made their money), the president will ask (direct?) the larger insurers to underwrite the individual mandate. The undercapitalized, new-to-the-game insurers are the "bad apples" that the President references. These "bad apples" will leave on their own, or will be directed to leave. The void will need to be filled by the larger health care insurers.

All things being equal, ObamaCare will increase the number of dollars insurance companies pay out for health care. One of the best features of the program, and one I strongly support, is the end of the cap on lifetime healthcare expenses. But commonsense tells one that eliminating the cap on lifetime healthcare expenses will require insurance premiums to go up. So, all things being equal, starting next year, folks who are insured through their employer will see their health care premiums, co-pays, and/or deductibles rise. More likely, the companies will simply shift their employees to ObamaCare's individual mandate, giving their employees $200/month to find their own care. Or as Mr Obama himself has said: "shop around."

But all things are not equal. As noted above, the president will ask (direct?) the larger insurers who underwrite employer-mandate insurance to step in and underwrite the individual-mandate insurance.

Two things follow:

• the large insurers knew this would happen, and they needed the one year extension to see how the individual mandate roll-out would, well, roll out ---; and, 
• the large insurers know they will have to increase premiums and/or change the benefit program for the employee-mandate insurance

So, for all those folks who get their insurance through their employer and have noted no change in their premiums or benefits, enjoy it for one more year. Next year, you will be subsidizing the individual mandate, as well as paying for the increased costs associated with ObamaCare mandates.

"Navigators" are noting that they are not signing up new folks because of "sticker shock."

The tea leaves are pretty easy to read:

• the individual mandate will fail because it defies the law of insurance
• the employer mandate will be the stepping stone to single-payer insurance

Single-payer insurance is "code" for a national health care system. And that's fine with me. The National Health Service works relatively well in Great Britain.

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I don't know if anyone outside Massachusetts knows this, and I'm sure few residents of Massachusetts know this, but electricity for Massachusetts is provided by a UK company, National Grid.

This begs the question. If Mr Obama copied the Massachusetts health care plan when he developed ObamaCare, as he said throughout the day yesterday, why didn't he follow Massachusetts' lead in the electricity grid, and simply contract out the entire US health care program to the British National Health Service?

My hunch: that was in the works (for the US to simply contract out its entire healthcare program to the Brits until Mr Snowden defected, and we learned that Mr Obama was listening in (eavesdropping) on the Britsh prime minister's private phone calls. And so it goes.