Webcasts: Enercom Conference, February 19 - 21

When I first started blogging about the Bakken, I thrived on the Enercom conference webcasts. Now there is so much information coming out of the Bakken (and out of North America, for that matter), that it almost becomes overwhelming. Scratch that "almost." It has become overwhelming.

However, "anon 1" has provided the link: Enercom Conference.

The following are minor notes for my use; not to be used by others; subject to errors, misinterpretation; visit the linked site and access the corporate presentations; I assume the presentations will be posted for about a month before they disappear.

Raymond James provides overview:

• slide 2: global oil demand is sputtering; stocks are tracking with oil; natural gas will get better
• slide 3: our 2013 demand projection: 300 - 500K below consensus; US oil supply growth is screaming higher -- our 2013 supply projection: 200K - 500K above consensus; global oil inventories max out in next 6 - 12 months; key issues: Saudi, Mideast geopolitics, global economy
• slide 4:  oil supply forecast Raymond James under-forecast; EIA really, really underforecast
• slide 13: supply vs demand; Japan is key to 2013
• slide 15: global oil inventory hits record highs in 2013; graphic is quite graphic
• slide 16: Saudi must cut; Saudi has already cut 1 million bopd; Raymond James thinks Saudi must cut more before year 2013; provides reasons why Saudi might not cut
• slide 18: how much OPEC needs to cut in 2014
• slide 19: what solves structural oil problems -- lower oil prices
• slide 20: WTO disconnect choppy but sustainable
• slide 34: outlook for oil independence -- RJ says to pay attn to this graph

Triangle Petroleum:

McKenzie County, core - 22,000 net acres, 2 rigs; Williams County, core/other -- 14,000 net acres; Montana/Station Prospect -- 50,000 net acres; Rockpile will add a 2nd frack spread; sand storage/rail off-loading/maintenance facility able to support 3 - 4 frack spreads; expanding into cased hole wireline services, operational by 2Q14; Caliber Midstream pipeline

Acorn: "the digital energy company"

provides history of evolution from 2D to 4D seismic; graph showing cost of replacing each barrel of oil (from around $7.50/bbl in 1998 to around $27.50/bbl in 2011); the graph regarding effectiveness of fracking is incredible: 20% of frack stages produce 80% of the oil/natural gas; 50% of frack stages produce zero oil/natural gas; the most effective play: the Barnett shale at 47% (total sample of 11 plays: 24%); Permian Basin - 22%; Eagle Ford - 21%; Bakken 30%. Of the oil plays, it looks like Bakken is among the best with regard to fracking effectiveness (slide 10); "stark difference" between a good well and a bad well (slide 11); #1 reason for poor frack: failure to understand subsurface (and that's why 4D seismic so important); revolutionary fiber sensor emerged from DOD (nice picture of US submarine, slide 16)

Emerald Oil:

continuous 1-rig drilling program; will drill 10 gross/7.5 net-operated wells in 2013; slide 7: repeats Harold Hamm's assertion that there are 24 billion bbls technically recoverable oil from the middle Bakken and upper Three Forks plays (note the wording); 51,000 net acres in the Bakken (MT and ND); core area in McKenzie and Dunn counties; EOX at $6/share ~ $2,000/net Bakken acre vs the peer group average of ~$9,000/net Bakken acre