China Rising: Based On GDP, China Overtakes Japan; China #2 Behind USA -- Nothing To Do With The Bakken

Updates

January 10, 2014: China surpasses US as world's largest trading nation. The [London] Guardian is reporting:

China became the world's largest trading nation in 2013, overtaking the US in what Beijing described as "a landmark milestone" for the country.

China's annual trade in goods passed the $4tn (£2.4tn) mark for the first time last year according to official data, after exports from the world's second largest economy rose 7.9% to $2.21tn and imports rose 7.3% to $1.95tn. As a result total trade rose 7.6% over the year to $4.16tn.

The US is yet to publish its 2013 trade figures, but with trade totalling $3.5tn in the first 11 months of the year, it is unlikely to beat China. The shift in the trading pecking order reflected China's rising global dominance, despite a slowdown in economic growth last year. [I remember some time ago I pointed out that the Chinese economy would soon become the #1 economy in the world; one reader took me to task on this prediction.]

Two days later, this headline: Oil Prices Rise After Chinese Export Report

Oil prices rose Monday as China said exports in January surged, a sign that the global economy was gaining steam.

China said that exports jumped 37.7 percent -- more than double the rate in December -- to $150.7 billion. A rise in Chinese exports suggests consumer demand is rising as well, and that could expand consumption of gasoline, diesel and other fuels.

Original Post

Link here.

Although it's only expected to be temporary, China is now #2, behind the USA in terms of GDP.

Japan’s economy contracted for the first time in five quarters as exports slowed and government stimulus faded, a pullback projected to be temporary as demand from China and U.S. revives output this year.

Gross domestic product shrank an annualized 1.1 percent in the three months ended Dec. 31, following a revised 3.3 percent expansion in the previous quarter. The median forecast of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 2 percent drop. 

That's a pretty significant miss by the economists: the forecast was a 2 percent drop; actual number was 3.3 percent. (1.3 represents 65 percent of 2.0 --- they were off by 65 percent.)  [If your plane trip was expected to be two hours, but it took 3 and a third hours, the trip was 65 percent longer than planned.]

It's only a matter of time before China holds the number 2 slot "permanently." If China and Japan are this close now, it's just a matter of time before China beats Japan on a regular basis.

The "contest" for GDP ranking between Japan and China reminds me of the race for the #1 ranking in market cap between XOM and AAPL. 

It should be noted that, sort of on a related note, GM sold more cars in China than the US last year (2010) which is a first for GM -- selling more cars in China than the US in one year.