Monthly Unemployment Numbers -- Not Getting Better (August, 2010)

The job picture got worse in 27 states -- this is a worse report than last month. In fact it's much worse considering the recession ended last June (2009), and considering the number of states whose unemployment actually worsened.

A total of 27 states reported higher unemployment rates in August, nearly double the 14 that saw increases in July, the Labor Department said in its monthly report on state unemployment Tuesday.

North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska continue to report the lowest unemployment among the states.

And two of these three states have no oil.

And one of these three states has much less productive farmland than the other two. And no oil.

Getting back to the unemployment report: thirteen states now belong to the "10% club." Last month it was "only" eleven states.  The two new states to join the "10% or greater unemployment" are Kentucky and Georgia.

Nevada, Michigan, and California are #1, #2, and #3, respectively.

With regard to the "recession ending in June of last year, I am pretty much convinced, that within the strict definition of a recession (a decline in two or more consecutive quarters) we are headed for a second recession in the very near future or we are already back in a recession. Even if we don't hit the mark exactly (a decline in two or more consecutive quarters) the growth is going to be so anemic that for all practical purposes, it would be considered a recession by most folks. The GDP is reported out to tenth or hundredth percentage; I don't feel a change of a few tenths or hundredths of a percent is statistically significant nor reproducible. It's hard to convince me that the recession ended last June when GDP is graphed with inflation taken into account: this graph suggests an obvious downturn for the past two quarters. [Update, September 23, 2010: I must be in good company. Warren Buffett agrees -- we are still in a recession. And Congress deciding not to vote on extending tax cuts tells me the recession will get worse. It's as much psychological as anything, and businesses are very, very nervous; they won't hire.]

Politically, would it have been better for the recession not to have ended last June? To me, going forward, incumbents are faced with two equally bad situations: a) explaining to their constituents why 15% still don't have jobs when we are no longer in a recession; of, b) explaining why they let the US economy slip into another recession so soon after the most recent recession (the so-called "double dip").