Updates
Later, 12:09 a.m., August 19, 2020: for additional computations see the first comment which I've brought up here:
I looked up the cost of the battery plant Tesla is building at Moss Landing (on the site of an existing power plant to use the tranmission infrastructure) and the cost per MWH works out to $110K (80million/730MWH).
That's 4 hours @ 182MW.
Tesla has the lowest battery costs of basically anyone. So ... if California needs 4000MW x 4 hours = 16000 MWH of capacity that would be $1.8Bn. @JoeBiden would write them that check...
And Elon Musk would love to endorse it.
Original Post
From an earlier post either last night or early this morning:
- yesterday, demand for today forecast to be 50,485 MW;
- historic peak: 50,270 MW, July 24, 2006;
- today, demand has increased from 50,485 MW to 50,553 MW; link here;
- capacity expected to be: 46,619 MW
- forecast deficit: =3,914, which will be close to a record deficit this year, if not a record deficit; I think I recall governor of California citing a 4,000-MW deficit earlier;
A reader has done the math. With a little editing:
Well, there is one little problem. Below you see the math for 1000 MW storage. Just multiple by 4 = $28.8 billion.
Even the most optimistic (lying through their green teeth) battery storage promoters shouldn’t be taken seriously when projecting Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) at less than $200/KWh.
$200,000/MWh, $200 Million/1000 MWh.
Getting through the 3 PM – 9 PM peak requires $200 million X 6 hrs for every 1,000 MW of demand = $1.2 billion. (I have no idea what current real world prices are for storage, but my hunch is that it’s about $600/KWh. = $7.2 billion for 6 hours of 1,000 MW demand….give it up).
If there are errors in the editing, blame me but the point is well taken.
I looked up the cost of the battery plant Tesla is building at Moss Landing (on the site of an existing power plant to use the tranmission infrastructure) and the cost per MWH works out to $110K (80million/730MWH). Thats 4 hours @ 182MW. (Tesla has the lowest battery costs of basically anyone) - So... if CA need 4000MW x 4 hours = 16000 MWH of capacity that would be $1.8Bn. @JoeBiden would write them that check...
ReplyDeleteLOL. I'm impressed that folks can find this information so quickly. Which suggests that even the California governor can find it. Thank you for taking the time to write. Much appreciated.
DeleteThe engineered solutions exist for peak demand for power grid;
ReplyDelete-Suppose you have 10% of vehicles in California that are EVs with ability to P2G. That would be about 1.5 million batteries with about 50KWH for each vehicle. 75000 MWH of stored power. Offer car owners a good price for that stored power during peak demand that happens a few times a year. The battery cost is paid for by the vehicle owner, no need for the utility company to spend billions for storage.
-30 years ago I lived in Florida, you could get some cash from the power company FPL to put controllers on your hot water heater and HVAC to shut it off during peak demand for an hour. Communication was done VIA low frequency signal on the AC power connected to your home.
-Here in the state of MD, to prevent building of new powerlines, generous rebates at point of purchase. My cost of power is under 11 cents a KWH including transmission costs and taxes.
By the way, that's a great point. For all the attention I'm giving the strained power grid, in fact, as you note, it happens rarely, a few times during the year. In addition, it appears consumers are doing a great job cutting back when asked. Finally, solar in CA is doing a lot better than I would have thought -- during the day, of course.
DeleteWhen the peak demand happens, usually very cold or very hot. EVs are not a good choice since a lot of power used for heating or cooling. Sell the power back to the utility company 2-3 times the price you paid. You mentioned a few days ago that you would love a 3 car garage with an EV as one of the vehicles. Great idea!
ReplyDeleteI'll never have that 3-car garage with an EV but I bet one of our granddaughters will, or even possibly, one of the grandsons.
Delete