EIA: Update On CBR, From The Bakken To The Three Coasts -- EIA -- March 2, 2016

Updates

March 26, 2016: see these two recent stories also with regard to Bakken CBR:

• Bakken CBR to the Pacific Northwest -- RBN Energy update
• Palermo CBR terminal now on-line 

Original Post

 

Note: see first comment -- the EIA makes it very, very easy to find past articles. 

This had a dynamic link which suggested this link might be broken. [I am wrong: see first comment -- the EIA makes it very, very easy to find past article.]

It's a nice update for a number of reasons, especially for the archives. The entire article is re-posted here.

Rail still moves crude from the Midwest to coastal regions, but in smaller volumes.

The movement of crude by rail (CBR) within the United States, including intra-Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) movements, reached 928,000 barrels per day (b/d) in October 2014, with most of the shipments originating in the Midwest (PADD 2) and going to the East Coast (PADD 1), West Coast (PADD 5), and Gulf Coast (PADD 3). Since October 2015, CBR volumes have declined as production has slowed, crude oil price spreads have narrowed, and pipelines have come online.

The economics of CBR flows depend largely on significant domestic crude discounts compared with international crudes. As domestic crudes that price in the Midwest, such as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Bakken, are no longer at large discount to waterborne crudes such as North Sea Brent, there is less of a cost advantage for costal refineries to run the domestic crudes.

The Bakken crude oil spot price discount to Brent averaged $8 per barrel (b) in August 2015. It narrowed to average only $2/b in November 2015, and by January 2016 averaged $1.69/b (Figure 1). The narrower the spread between domestic and imported international crude, the more likely costal refineries will choose to run imported crudes rather than domestic supplies shipped via rail.

Crude supplies carried by rail from the Midwest to the East Coast (PADD 2 to PADD 1) continue to be the largest rail movement, accounting for 50% of total CBR moved within the United States in December 2015, the latest month for which data are available.

However, this flow has been trending downward since reaching 465,000 b/d in April of last year. With a narrowing price spread between domestic and imported crude oil, PADD 1 rolling four-week average crude oil imports increased to 973,000 b/d for the week ending February 19 compared with 797,000 b/d five weeks earlier. This is consistent with trade press reports of increased imports of West African crudes by East Coast refiners in recent months. Increased runs of imported crude in PADD 1 have reduced the need for CBR shipments to that region.

The next largest CBR movement is from PADD 2 to PADD 5, which typically goes to refineries in the Pacific Northwest. While movements from the Midwest to the West Coast fell in the early part of 2015 during planned and unplanned refinery outages, deliveries resumed when refineries restarted in late spring. The West Coast received an average of 139,000 b/d of crude oil by rail from the Midwest in 2015, roughly comparable with 2014 levels. Despite narrowing domestic and imported crude price spreads, CBR flows to PADD 5 continued as refinery outages and supply tightness, specifically in California, increased gasoline crack spreads last summer, prompting increased refinery runs. The increased runs allowed PADD 5 crude oil imports and CBR flows to increase simultaneously, as PADD 5 imports increased to 1.2 million b/d in September 2015, including 38,000 b/d by rail from Canada, while crude supply from PADD 2 via rail set a new high of 182,000 b/d.

CBR from the Midwest to the Gulf Coast (PADD 2 to PADD 3) formed the largest inter-PADD rail movement from 2011 to 2013. Midwest-to-Gulf Coast rail movements started to decline in the second half of 2013 as new and expanded pipeline capacity came online, beginning with the Enterprise Product Partners Seaway Pipeline reversal. As additional pipeline capacity was added throughout 2013-15, CBR movements to the Gulf Coast from the Midwest continued to decline, dropping to 38,000 b/d in December 2015, 75,000 b/d less than in the previous year. Other crude producing regions, such as the Niobrara crude from PADD 4 (Rocky Mountains) and Permian Basin crude from PADD 3 (Texas and New Mexico) also experienced growth in pipeline takeaway capacity to the Gulf Coast refining centers, reducing the need for railed crude supply from PADD 2 (Figure 2).

Continued pipeline takeaway expansions and interconnections with existing pipelines in crude-producing regions such as the Bakken and the Gulf Coast will further reduce the need for intra-PADD rail flows within the Midwest and the Gulf Coast, as well as inter-PADD rail flows from the Midwest to the Gulf Coast. However, no crude oil pipeline infrastructure currently exists to move crude to the East and West coasts from the Midwest. Therefore, future CBR flows to the coasts will depend on the price dynamic between domestic and international crudes, as well as any long-term contractual volume commitments made by refiners.

U.S. average retail regular gasoline and diesel fuel prices increase

The U.S. average retail regular gasoline price increased five cents from the previous week to $1.78 per gallon on February 29, down 69 cents from the same time last year. The Midwest price rose 11 cents to $1.72 per gallon. The West Coast price increased seven cents to $2.21 per gallon. The Gulf Coast and Rocky Mountain prices each rose three cents to $1.56 per gallon and $1.70 per gallon, respectively. The East Coast price increased less than a penny to $1.74 per gallon.

The U.S. average diesel fuel price increased one cent from the prior week to $1.99 per gallon, down 95 cents from the same time last year. The Rocky Mountain and Midwest prices each rose two cents to $1.88 per gallon, and $1.94 per gallon, respectively. The West Coast price increased by a penny to $2.19 per gallon. The Gulf Coast price increased by less than a penny to remain virtually unchanged at $1.87 per gallon.

Residential heating fuel prices decrease

As of February 29, 2016, residential heating oil prices averaged just under $2.09 per gallon, less than 1 cent per gallon lower than last week and $1.20 per gallon lower than last year's price for the same week. The wholesale heating oil price this week averaged $1.13 per gallon, 3 cents per gallon higher than last week and $1.24 per gallon lower than a year ago.

Residential propane prices averaged nearly $2.03 per gallon, less than 1 cent per gallon lower than last week and 34 cents per gallon lower than one year ago. Wholesale propane prices averaged 51 cents per gallon, 4 cents per gallon higher than last week and 27 cents per gallon lower than the price last year.

Propane inventories fall

U.S. propane stocks decreased by 3.7 million barrels last week to 63.1 million barrels as of February 26, 2016, 8.0 million barrels (14.5%) higher than a year ago. Gulf Coast and Midwest inventories decreased by 2.3 million barrels and 0.6 million barrels, respectively, while East Coast and Rocky Mountain/West Coast inventories each decreased by 0.4 million barrels. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 4.6% of total propane inventories.