Friday, September 17, 2021

WTI Dropping; Holds Above $71 -- September 17, 2021

Are you kidding me? EU lawmakers press for an investigation of Gazprom's role in natural-gas-price jump. Nordstrom likely to be delayed another six weeks. That will take us into winter. Wow. What are they thinking?

Economy: I understand macro-economics not at all. But retail sales surged last month -- up 0.8% vs an expectation of a small decline month-over-month. We have to be careful here, but if retail sales are tracked in dollars, which they are, then the cost of gasoline certainly accounts for some of that increase, although, to be honest, not much. Gasoline prices have been at this level for quite some time now, and peak driving season is now over. 

I was going to write a long note regarding this issue but quickly got bored. Bottom line: I'm not a bit concerned.

General Milley: I haven't read the book but I've seen the headline which is more than I can say for 78 percent of the general population that haven't even heard of the story -- of General Milley calling "China" near the end of Trump's term. That came from a new Woodward book - I assume the book is 300+ pages long, and the publisher needed a hook to make sales. And that was the hook: General Milley called "China." Sounds bad. Big deal.

Pretty funny. My understanding is that General Milley called "his counterpart" in China. Wouldn't that be part of his job description? Now, let's suppose General Milley was getting intel that "China" was misinterpreting Trump's rants, raves, and ridiculous tweets. Let's say General Milley was getting intel that China was about to go nuclear if Xi saw one more B-52 launched from Okinawa. Let's say Trump didn't believe the intel. Now, wouldn't you want General Milley to let his counterpart know that things were fine, stay calm and have another Peking Cocktail or Beijing Suan Nai? But to hear the uproar, it sounds like folks would have preferred a nuclear war rather than a phone call to calm things down. People are nuts.

Flu season: could this be the best "flu season" ever? Covid-19 eradicated "seasonal flu" in less than a year, and now all indications are Covid-19 is burning itself out. But to be safe, I'm sitting at an Alaskan Airways gate that is completely empty -- arrived at 7:00 a.m. for a 9:30 a.m. flight and, of course, no one is here. I need binoculars to see folks sitting at next gate. But, I'm wearing my mask in between sips of Starbucks coffee. The virus, apparently, does not spread while drinking or eating.

Why no one is seriously worried about losing the Arctic -- theUinta Basin: The Green River Formation is found in the Uinta Basin. There are official estimates of 3 trillion bbls of original oil in place (OOIP) in this formation. Seventy-five (75%) of the Green River formation is under federal (BLM) control.

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Back to the Bakken

July production, link here:

  • 1.077789 million bopd;
  • down about 56,000 bpd
  • down about 5% m/m

Active rigs* -- updated at COB: 

$71.43
9/17/202109/17/202009/17/201909/17/201809/17/2017
Active Rigs24*11626656

No wells coming off confidential list.

RBN Energy: will waxy-crude-by-rail support Uinta Basin production? I track the Uinta Basin here. Archived.

There’s a lot to like about the unusual, waxy crude oil produced in the Uinta Basin in northeastern Utah
Low production costs, minimal sulfur content, next-to-no contaminants, and favorable medium-to-high API numbers. 
Oh, and there’s plenty of the stuff — huge reserves. The catch is that waxy crude has a shoe-polish-like consistency at room temperature, and has to be heated into a liquid state for storage and transportation. As you’d expect, refineries in nearby Salt Lake City are regular buyers; they receive waxy crude via insulated tanker trucks. They can only use so much though. Lately, a couple of Gulf Coast refineries have been railing in occasional shipments of waxy crude, but getting it onto heated rail cars involves a white-knuckle tanker-truck drive across a 9,100-foot-high mountain pass to a transloading facility. Now, finally, crude-by-rail access from the heart of the Uinta is poised to become a reality, offering the potential for much easier access to distant markets and, possibly, a big boost in Uinta production. In today’s blog, we provide an update on waxy crude and its prospects.

3 comments:

  1. Reverse the Milley scenario: What if a General, over reacts to the blovications of the POTUS, calls his "counterpart" and tells them, dont worry, he's really not in charge, we are. Thats insubordination, at the least. Those at Foggy Bottom have thought more highly of themselves than they ought for years. Seems like the more stars on the collar, the higher and misguided they get. My 2 cents worth

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    1. I agree, if "he" says "we" are in charge, that would be insubordination ... of course, any Nazi general diverting trainloads of Jews from a concentration camp would have been insubordination also ... but I digress.

      In this case, based on the incredibly limited information, I have, General Milley was simply calling his counterpart to help him interpret the president's public statements. My hunch: that's spelled out in his job description.

      There's a very, very interesting military concept: commander's intent. Much could be said. But I have no trouble with insubordination if it prevented a nuclear holocaust. The general can serve his time in federal prison knowing he did the right thing.

      A good day to watch a Stanley Kubrick movie.

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    2. Folllowing Biden's order (or at least the commander's intent), the military killed a civilian aid worker and his ten-member family in the final days of Afghanistan. I guess we have sort of forgotten that.

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