The Peculiarities Of The Bakken: A CLR Holstein Federal Well In Elm Tree -- August 27, 2017

I'm not smart enough to articulate succinctly what I'm seeing in the Bakken as I update wells in various fields.

But I am seeing a new phenomenon. In the past I've noted older wells that have shown a huge jump in production after they have been taken off-line for a few months while neighboring wells are fracked, and then are brought back on line. Sometimes the jump in production does not last very long; sometimes it lasts quite awhile. Sometimes the jump in production is not particularly meaningful; in some cases the jump in production in one month equals what the well would have produced in two years based on production data prior to when the well came off line.

But now I'm seeing another phenomenon. The jump in production is remarkable but it's coming much earlier in the cycle, completely interrupting the typical Bakken decline curve and extending the high production that was seen after the original frack, and delaying the typical Bakken decline. This delay is "free money" for the operator.

Here is an example. CLR has been doing a lot of work in the area of the Holstein Federal pads in Elm Tree. Note the well below, a well that was fracked in early 2015, and has not yet shown the typical Bakken decline rate, probable because of all the fracking being done in the local area. All I can call it is a "peculiarity" of the Bakken because it's not being talked about yet.

Maybe it's not that big a deal; maybe it won't be enough to move the needle, but in the aggregate, North Dakota crude oil production remains over one million bopd with only 50 rigs, a production level that we used to see with 200 rigs.

Maybe it's not a big deal; maybe it won't move the needle, but for mineral owners, I doubt they are complaining.

Which brings me to another issue. In the "good old days" (LOL - three years ago) mineral owners often complained that a new well being drilled in their neighborhood was going to "drain" away oil from their "own" well.

Something tells me, mineral owners are thrilled when new wells are being fracked near "their" older wells.

Reminder for newbies: oil companies do not drill a new well in the Bakken if it isn't projected to produce a EUR of at least 750,000 bbls. Some might argue that behind closed doors operators are talking about drilling wells only if they have EURs of one million bbls. I don't know. Just idle chatter.

But I digress.

Here's a good example of what I'm talking about with regard to the typical Bakken decline being delayed. (By the way, when I first started blogging about the Bakken I often blogged that all that talk about "the typical Bakken decline" was "overblown." But I never imagined this.)

This well was drilled/completed back in late 2014/early 2015, only two or three years ago, way too early to consider re-working; a mini re-frack; or, a new, major refrack. But look at how the production has been extended several months, due to what I'm calling the "peculiarities of the Bakken." Not even three years old, this well has now produced over 500,000 bbls of oil. I used to consider wells producing 500,000 bbls in the first few years of "life," "monster wells."

I don't plan on adding any more wells to the "monster wells" list if they've only produced 500,000 bbls in a short period of time. The new threshold will be 750,000 bbls.

• 27564, 1,235, CLR, Holstein Federal 2-25H, Elm Tree, 40 stages, 4 million lbs; ceramic; small, and large sand; t2/15; cum 534K 6/17; API: 33-053-05653; 

Monthly production data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	24947	25262	30006	37210	34335	2860
BAKKEN	5-2017	29	24830	24445	43125	34239	31094	3131
BAKKEN	4-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2017	27	13692	13664	13110	18084	16335	1511
BAKKEN	12-2016	31	18256	18038	18636	25422	25165	93
BAKKEN	11-2016	7	793	1156	65	1361	1234	21
BAKKEN	10-2016	31	19316	19219	3496	25013	24439	93
BAKKEN	9-2016	30	17681	17671	2572	22481	22331	90
BAKKEN	8-2016	31	20476	20555	3519	26261	22488	3413
BAKKEN	7-2016	31	21432	21423	3827	28337	27779	93
BAKKEN	6-2016	30	21949	21884	4022	28284	26484	1350

Between 1/17 when it came off line, to 6/17, two additional months of production, this well jumped from 484,665 bbls to 534,432 bbls. In just two months of new production, a 10% jump in total crude oil produced.