Tuesday, June 13, 2017

April, 2017, Production Data Has Been Posted; Production Exceeded Expectations: Natural Gas Production Hits All-Time Record -- June, 2017, Director's Cut

The Director's Cut for April, 2017, data has been posted. North Dakota crude oil production increased by 2% month-over-month.

From the Director's Cut: both DUCs and inactive well count increased. It is the inactive well count in this case that is most interesting; despite more wells going inactive, the total production increased 2%.
  • Estimated wells waiting on completion is 830, up 141 from the end of March to the end of April. 
  • Estimated inactive well count is 1,466, up 167 from the end of March to the end of April. 
The Bismarck Tribune story here. Data points:
  • exceeded expectations
  • natural gas production hits an all-time time as operators focus on the core care of the Bakken
  • average production: 1.05 million bopd 
  • natural gas production: jumped 6% to more than 1.8 billion cubic feet / day -- a new record
  • Lynn Helms: 55 is like the peak (number of active rigs in North Dakota) for 2017
  • overall flaring: 10.4%; concerning is that federal delay in pipeline permitting makes capturing gas difficult on the reservation; current 15% of natural gas the reservation is flared
  • 70% of ND oil was transported by pipeline in April, up from 58% in March
  • cost benefits of DAPL won't be seen for 6 months or so (contracts, etc)
Reuters reports the story here. My favorite line in the Reuters story:
North Dakota regulators said in a statement they expect oil prices to be weak through at least October. OPEC members last month agreed to maintain their own production cuts, though rising output in states like North Dakota has been offsetting the cartel's moves.
Graphs at outrunchange here.

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From The Director's Cut

Oil production
  • April, 2017: 1,050,630 bopd
  • March, 2017: 1,025,690 bopd
  • Delta: +2.4% or + 24,940
Producing wells:
  • April, 2017: 13,717
  • March, 2017: 13,693
  • Delta: +24 wells or 0.18%
Permitting
  • April, 2017: 58
  • March, 2017: 93
Oil price:
  • today: $35.50
  • May: $37.85
  • April: $39.86
  • March: $38.13
Rig count:
  • today: 55
  • May: 50
  • April: 50
  • March: 46
Wells not producing:
  • waiting on completion: 830; up 141 from the end of March to the end of April
  • estimated inactive well count: 1,2466; up 167 from the end of March to the end of April
Takeaway capacity:
  • remains dependent on CBR to coastal refineries

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