Wednesday, January 18, 2017

Re-Posting A Most Spectacular Graphic -- Gasoline Demand -- January 18, 2017

Updates

February 24, 2018: in the graphic below, the change in miles driven is "against" the left-hand x-axis, from -4% to +6%. The graph appears to go through the end of 2016. Gartman, a frequent commentator on CNBC said that Uber was the top threat to oil. Apparently, Uber is not a threat yet. Whether or not the increase of miles driven impresses anyone, US "gasoline demand" set more records in 2017 (will be posted later).

How did miles driven for 2017 in the US stack up compared to previous years. Link at Federal Highway Administration.  
  • July, 2017: 0.8% increase year-over-year; cumulative travel for 2017 through July, 2017, increased 1.5%.
  • December, 2017: 0.7% increase year-over year. The cumulative estimate for the year is 3,208.5 billion vehicle miles of travel. 
Original Post

Gartman: Uber is top threat to oil. That was March 29, 2016. One year later:
Some important data points about the graphic:
  • the individual green bars represent year-over-year growth; left hand axis is 4 - 6% for the 2014 - 2016 surge
  • this graphic goes back all the way to January, 2008, the last year of George W Bush's presidency
  • the graphic encompasses the years of the entire Obama presidency; this is not political; this has nothing to do with Obama; it just puts the timeline in perspective for me
  • the Saudis opened the crude oil spigots on/about October, 2014 -- their $1 trillion mistake
  • by January, 2015, only three months later, gasoline demand (proxy for miles traveled) surged to highest year-over-year growth  in almost a decade, and possibly the greatest surge in modern history
  • and then it spiked even higher in early 2016
  • the year-over-year growth continued to surge throughout the next two years of the Saudi crude oil surge
  • some pundits have suggested that gasoline is like crack cocaine: bring the price down, get more people hooked, demand will persist even as the price is brought back up 
  • Saudis are now suggesting that they may be able to open the spigots again, as soon as five months from now  

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