Thursday, August 6, 2015

Every well -- 100% -- coming off confidential list today went to DRL status.  Four DUCs.

Natural gas fill rate (dynamic link): 32. In the East Region, stocks were 69 Bcf below the 5-year average following net injections of 36 Bcf.

Active rigs:

	8/6/2015	08/06/2014	08/06/2013	08/06/2012	08/06/2011
Active Rigs	75	191	183	204	184

RBN Energy: opportunity to attend an RBN Energy conference.

EIA "energy nugget":

Russia is the world's largest producer of crude oil (including lease condensate) and the second-largest producer of dry natural gas, after the United States. Hydrocarbons play a large role in the Russian economy, as revenue from oil and natural gas production and exports accounts for more than half of Russia's federal budget revenue. However, recent international sanctions on Russia, coupled with low oil prices, have put pressure on the Russian economy…Russia exported more than 4.7 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil and lease condensate in 2014, based on data from the Federal Customs Service of Russia. Countries in Asia and Europe received more than 98% of Russia's crude oil exports. --- EIA

Job watch: initial unemployment claims increase by 3,000 to 270,000. That's on top of the 12,000 increase last week.

Flashback: I missed this but it turns out that global peak oil was reached July, 2008. Tom Whipple, a 30-year CIA analyst, and "one of the most highly respected analyss of peak oil issues in the US"  noted that global oil production of 88 million bopd in July, 2008, was the high-water mark for crude oil production. His summary paragraph:

At this point, the oil age will be closing down. Worldwide production will be declining rapidly through a combination of lower demand and then depletion. In four years sustainable production capacity is likely to be down from 87 million b/d to the vicinity of 80 million [global petroleum and other liquids]. In 10 or 15 years world production is likely to be in the vicinity of 50 million b/d and by mid-century 20 or 30 million. By the end of the century, oil production will be nearly gone and will be restricted to high-value uses for which there is no alternative. Future generations will either adopt alternative forms of energy, far more efficient machines, or do without. And it all started last July.

Global crude oil production, EIA: link here.

• 2008, average: 74 million bopd
• 2012, average: 76 million bopd
• 2013, average: 76 million bopd
• 2014, average: 78 million bodp
• 2015, through April, 4-month average: 80 millioin bopd
• 2014, through April, 4-month average: 77 million bopd
• 2013, through April, 4-month average: 76 million bopd

Global petroleum and other liquids, EIA: link here. (Compare with Tom Whipple above.)

• 2016e: 96 million bopd
• 2015e: 95 million bopd
• 2014: 93 million bopd
• 2013: 91 million bopd