Thursday, June 26, 2014

For Investors Trading; Japan's Fossil-Fueled Generation Was Up A Whopping 20% In 2012; World Soccer Cup Behind Ukraine-Russia Cease Fire

Updates

June 28, 2014: in the original post, it is noted that wind farms in California have a license to kill up to 5 eagles/year; the feds allow 15 eagles/year. But no slack is given to individual white men taking eagles on a reservation. The Bismarck Tribune is reporting:
A federal judge has ordered a North Dakota man to pay $6,000 in restitution and fines for illegally trapping an eagle on the Standing Rock Indian Reservation.
Investigators say Tyrell Bateman was attempting to snare coyotes on land where he wasn’t authorized to hunt. The eagle was caught in one of the traps northeast of Selfridge on Jan. 5. A witness took photos of the bird before releasing it.
If I read that correctly, the eagle capture was unintended, and it was released, apparently well enough to fly off.  He should have pulled an "Elizabeth Warren," saying he was a Native American.

Original Post 

How's that war on coal going? The EIA is reporting:
Japan's use of fossil-fueled generation—the combined amount of electricity generated from natural gas, oil, and coal—was up 21% in 2012, compared to the level in 2011 after the Tohoku earthquake and related tsunami that led to the destruction of Tokyo Electric Power Company's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant and subsequent outages at other plants.
Following the accident at Fukushima, all reactors in Japan were required to perform computer-simulated stress tests to confirm their continued ability to operate safely in the event of a natural disaster. As reactors shut down for regularly scheduled maintenance or refueling, stress tests were performed and submitted to the Japanese Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency for review and acceptance.
On May 5, 2012, the last of Japan's 54 nuclear generating reactors was shut down for scheduled maintenance and stress tests. Only two reactors, Ohi Units 3 and 4, have restarted since the accident, and they are scheduled for an outage later this year.
Speaking of the war on coal, it looks Minnesotans can start getting ready to pay more for electricity: the EPA will do a "do-ever." It will re-assess two 1970s-vintage coal-burning plants to see if they are contributing to haze over two national parks somewhere in the vicinity. The StarTribune is reporting
The U.S. ­Environmental Protection Agency has agreed to reassess whether coal burned at Minnesota’s largest power plant is reducing visi­bility at national parks in Minnesota and Michigan.
If the environmental agency decides that emissions from Xcel Energy’s Sherco power plant in Becker, Minn., cause haze, it could mean costly pollution control upgrades or early retirement of two 1970s-era coal-burning units there.
But I think Minnesotans are well-off in the big scheme of things -- certainly they don't have the Guatamalan problem the Texans have -- and this shouldn't be much of a hardship.

Trading at 52-week highs: EPD, NBR, NOV, OKS, PSXP, SLB.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

The morning started out a little "concerning," should we say with the triple whammy (the RBN Energy story, ChevronTexaco profit-taking, and then the market falling in general along with the price of crude oil) but after coming back home from the local sports restaurant after watching the Germany-USA soccer match, all seems fine with the world. The market is recovering a bit, and the US advances to the next round where everything starts over. We are in the soccer equivalent of the "sweet 16" where it's now single elimination, win or go home.  I didn't realize this until during the noon hour: the Ukraine-Russia ceasefire, no doubt, was timed so adversaries could watch the World Cup. The governor of the state of New York gave state employees an extended lunch break today.


Nothing like SLB hitting a new high -- and doing it with an "exclamation point" -- to put me in a good mood. And it may not be over. Barron's suggests SLB might have a 70% upside:
Schlumberger guided earnings to grow at a 17-20% [compound annual growth rate] to $9-10/sh by 2017, ahead of our current estimate of a 15% [compound annual growth rate]. However, the company’s estimates are based on just a 6% industry spending growth level, which is about in line with our long-term expectations of 4-6%.
Schlumberger has historically converted 30% of its EBITDA or 75% of [earnings per share] into free cash flow, meaningfully above that of its peers, while trading at a free cash flow yield of 2-4%. 
Currently shares are trading at the high-end of the range making valuation compelling. Applying a conservative 3.5% yield to the company’s 2017 EPS estimate of $9-10/sh, its 75% free cash flow conversion and discounting it back 2 years at 10%, we arrive at our new $168 price target. If Schlumberger is able to bring this growth 6-12 months forward and its free cash flow yield approaches its historical 3% average, we arrive at our $200 bull case.
RW Baird has also SLB's price target from $117 to $130.

Annual limit on eagles in California now set at five/year. The AP is reporting:
Agency Director Daniel Ashe said the permit encourages development of renewable energy while requiring the wind company to take steps to protect eagles from turbines and power lines. The move will help California reach its goal of producing one-third of its energy from renewable sources by 2020, he said. 
Or, alternatively, "the permit encourages the killing of eagles while promoting a energy source with no redeemable qualities." Whatever. As long as SLB doubles over the next year, President Obama can do whatever he wants with his eagles. After all, it's his base that promoted all this. I don't have a dog (or an eagle, for that matter) in this fight.

Motley Fool has an article on EPD's plan to build a "Bakken-to-Cushing" pipeline but it's pretty much an advertisement for their newsletter. This is all it says about the question whether EPD will succeed:
It won't be easy, as most oil and gas producers in the region are more interested moving oil to the East and West coasts than to the storage hub in Cushing. However, there are a couple things working in Enterprise's' favor this time. Tune into the video below to find out why Enterprise may have a leg up on ONEOK and Energy Transfer Partners this time, as well as the challenges Enterprise will face in this endeavor.
I can't remember posting my thoughts on the "dividend play," but someone else has noticed the same thing. The Daily Ticker is reporting:
As businesses, Ford Motor Corp., Intel Corp. and Pepsico are about as similar as pickup trucks, memory chips and Funyuns. But in the stock market, these disparate companies are treated as nearly interchangeable — like savings accounts at different banks — based solely on how much cash one share of their stock kicks off in a year. They are just a few of the many motley members of the 3% Club. 
There is now an extraordinary crowding of big U.S. stocks around the 3% dividend yield level, a threshold that seems to exert a gravitational pull as investors bereft of easy sources of income bid up equities until they yield just a bit more than the 10-year Treasury note. (A stock's yield, calculated as the annual dividend payment divided by price, falls as shares climb.) 
But too many investors may implicitly be betting that these bond-like stocks will act like stocks in a low-rate bull market, and like bonds in an equity downturn. It won’t likely work out that way. If the stock market remains strong, these are unlikely to be the areas that continue to thrive. If it hits the skids, such stocks will not offer much of a buffer.
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Trainwreck

I posted/linked the original WSJ article earlier, but it never hurts to get a second opinion when it comes to medicine. Bloomberg's View suggests that ObamaCare's prognosis is getting dimmer:
A nightmare for Affordable Care Act supporters has been the possibility that only the sick would be left to purchase insurance through its exchanges, driving premiums up and insurers out. While the law’s boosters have been quick to dismiss the possibility that such a so-called death spiral could occur, data published in the Wall Street Journal suggest that this chain of events may not be so far-fetched after all.
The findings are significant not just for what they say about how Obamacare is working now, but also for their impact on the political debate over its future.
At its base, the data show that people insured through the law’s exchanges have higher rates of serious medical conditions. Of the enrollees who have seen a doctor or other health-care provider in the first quarter of this year, 27 percent have significant medical problems, including diabetes, cancer, heart trouble and psychiatric conditions. That rate is substantially higher than that for patients in nonexchange market plans over the same period. And it’s more than double the rate of those who were able to hold onto their existing individual market insurance plans after President Barack Obama was forced to allow them to keep them.

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A Note to the Granddaughters

This is a sad story: I see that Ms Abigail Jones Feder, JP Morgan's fixed income security executive has passed away at 51 years old, no doubt at the top of her game. I didn't know this Abigail but I knew another Abigail, a woman who at one time was the love of my life. I met her when we were both well past high school. We had come from very different backgrounds: she, East Coast, urban and urbane, intense; me, Midwest, rural and rustic, naive. She, died, also, at the top of her game at age 57, after a fairly long illness, some years ago. Life, for many, is way too short. Only the good die young. 

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