Wells Coming Off Confidential List Have Been Posted; Unemployment Drops To 6.7% -- Record Low For This Administration? Sears In A Death Spiral

The wells coming off the confidential list have been posted. Newbies should note three things:

• the six-month production rate for new wells (especially Hess and EOG) are simply incredible
• most wells coming off the confidential list are going to DRL status -- operational reasons
• more wells than ever will be reported in January, 2014 -- January, 2014, sets a record for wells coming off the confidential list

[Later, same day, some hours later: I like this headline from Rigzone -- "Oil rises, jobs data show economy needs Fed help.

The world's largest economy added just 74,000 thousand jobs in December, the Labor Department said, while analysts had forecast the addition of 196,000 jobs.]

Jobless claims (reported yesterday). Reuters is reporting:

• weekly first time unemployment claims drop an astonishing 15,000 to 330,000
• the less volatile four-week average dropped 9,750 to 349,000
• no indication that the polar vortex caused the drop in applications -- LOL 

Unemployment rate drops to Obama-administration record of 6.7%; break out the champagne; add golf to the weekend schedule. Reuters is reporting:

• job growth weakest in three years -- despite all those new ObamaCare navigators, new web designers
• now Reuters says "the polar vortex might have had an impact"; I can't make this stuff up.
• the nonfarm payroll rose 74,000 last month (December)

I honestly don't remember a report this bad since I began blogging. I guess my memory doesn't go back farther than January, 2011 (see linked story).

For newbies, remember, the number needed for job growth it at least 200,000 new jobs each month. When "they" get down to 150,000 it is very, very bad news. I don't know what adjectives Fox will use to describe "67,000."

From the linked article:

"It looks like it's a weather issue - a big drop in construction and a 1,000 drop in transportation. People will focus on the unemployment rate drop and the upward revision to the prior month," said John Canally, an economist for LPL Financial in Boston.

It was bad in December, but the real bad weather began in January -- didn't it? Anyway, weather was not a factor in the unemployment claims report; weather was a factor in the new jobs report.

But the bad news continues.

Everybody will focus on the record low participation rate. People are leaving the labor force in droves. My son-in-law did the math: if one's benefits total around $36,000/year (and federal, state direct payment; plus social services; plus "perks" for unemployed) it is better to stay unemployed than get a minimum-wage job.

This is the important number: "there was also a decline in the average workweek." Remember, this was the December report when all the retailers extended their hours, hired additional staff, for holiday and Christmas shopping. And even with all that extra hiring, longer hours, there was a decline in the average work week. Remember: employers need to get the work week down to 29 hours or less to avoid the ObamaCare tax.

The market can interpret the numbers and the market is down. Again.

The comments at the linked stories are spot on.

Later: the pundits are starting to comment on this devastating jobs report --

• record number of women NOT in labor force -- CNS
• 2013 ends with weakest job growth in years -- CNNMoney
• growth slowest in three years -- AP
• December jobs report: "very bad," "ugly," "awful" -- MSNBC
• senator skips unemployment vote to attend fundraiser in Hawaii (said he couldn't travel due to "polar vortex" -- changed his story when caught -- National Review

Wow, I've been saying the same thing for two years: spring hopes eternal (mainstream media spin) vs reality -- no jobs. Yahoo!Finance is reporting:

"Longer term, we know the story has been 'two steps forward, one step back,'" Hamrick says. "So should we be really surprised [at December's weakness]? Not that much."

Beyond the quantity of job creation, there also has been a lot of focus on the quality of jobs created.

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Wow, breaking news: Sears is in a death spiral; could be gone by 2017. My wife has never shopped in Sears, so she would not know but she thinks JCP's death spiral is tighter and steeper. Actually she didn't use those words; I paraphrased her comments. I also think Barnes and Noble is in deep trouble. I buy a lot of books and I consider myself a reader. In the past year, I spent 8% of my book budget at Barnes and Noble, and like I said, I spend a lot on books. I used to buy only used books, but this past year, about 75% of my book budget went to Amazon.