Now, about a week later, as of October 12, 2012, North Dakota is now on track for 2,535 new permits this calendar year.
Back on June 1, 2012, I posted these stats:
My database showed the following number of permits (may or may not include salt water disposal wells):The pace of permitting has increased significantly since June 1, 2012.
- 2012: 2,093 (est) -- based on 866 permits issued as of May 31, 2012
- 2011: 1,940
- 2010: 1,684
- 2009: 629
- 2008: 956
- 2007: 497
- 2006: 422
Will we see an increase in rigs proportionate?
ReplyDeleteI know the operators keep saying they are drilling the wells quicker but how much? And will next years drilling times be reduced by as much as last years?
In the past year from August of 2011 to August of 2012 producing wells in ND went from 5715 to 7480 or an increase of 1765.
Taking a wild guess here on average rig count during that period at 205 would suggest one rig was responsible for 8.61 completed wells. Divide 2535 by 8.61 and you would need 295 rigs based on those guesstimates to complete the task.
A lot of questions asked in that comment. Perhaps I will do a stand-alone post on this sometime in the near future. I want to see if the pace of permitting continues or if this is just a short-term anomaly.
DeleteSeveral things to consider:
1. Based on several years of following the Bakken very, very closely, it's my impression the operators know what they are doing. One of the reasons I track all this, or follow this on a daily basis, is to see things I might otherwise miss. Right now the "other" big story is that OXY USA and Newfield are not getting new permits.
2. Permits are good for a year; they are easily renewed with a letter and $100.
3. There is no urgency to drill once the leases are held by production.
4. I assume operators are not accumulating permits just to renew them a year from now, but you are correct: if we don't see a significant increase in number of wells on confidential list starting in March, 2013, they're going to have a huge backlog.
5. Rigs are not the limiting factor. Bottle necks are either frack spreads or infrastructure. I"ve blogged about that before: the optimum/necessary ratio of rigs to frack spreads.
RE: Newfield. They have a well staked and permitted on our land in Divide County. They have even paid the surface damages.They had to renew the permit last Dec. and will have to renew again this Dec.The lease will expire next April. We question if this well will ever be drilled.I guess them first indication will be in Dec.if the permit is renewed. Thanks for the outstanding job you are doing.As a Williston Native son I appreciate you loyalty to our old hometown .
ReplyDeleteMost likely in the Fertile Valley oil field. Newfield has four or five permits/wells there, including two on confidential list. The other three Newfield wells in the Fertile Valley oil field were not all that good.
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