Key Provision In ObamaCare Delayed One Year

Updates

July 12, 2013: "Oh, good, the employer-mandate is delayed a year." 

July 10, 2013: it's starting. If the employer-mandate is delayed, it is only fair that the individual mandate be also delayed. Some Senate Republicans want the individual mandate permanently delayed, sort of like a permitorium on drilling in the gulf.

Later, 9:16 pm: idle rambling. Remember all the complaints about the 60 pages of forms individuals had to fill out for ObamaCare? There were so many complaints, the government got it down to less then 6 pages, I believe. But it's still way too complicated. Now that that the vast majority of Americans who are covered by company health plans (from Wal-Mart to Red Lobster to Coca-Cola) are exempt (or at least their employers are), I can't imagine "individuals" (who are not exempt) feeling very happy about having to fill out the forms. I think the individual mandate will be blown off by the majority of Americans that would otherwise be required to enroll, and at some point, the whole thing becomes one big joke. The IRS will have its hands full going after a measly $95 from anybody who doesn't enroll. But before they can collect the $95, individuals will have a chance to show they have health insurance. Even the IRS will grow tired of this charade before it's all over. This may be the one chance that Americans who dislike the IRS can really create havoc with social disobedience, and at most it will cost them $95 or 1% of their taxable income, whichever is more, but way less than $5,000 for a health insurance policy. The stereotypical Wal-Mart shopper living on welfare, with an eighth-grade education at best, and there are millions of them, will have no interest in enrolling in ObamaCare. The biggest irony: the hundreds of thousands of liberal yuppies who support President O'Bama will also blow off the individual mandate.

Later, 7:46 pm: ObamaCare starting to unravel -- Carpe Diem.

Scott Grannis explains why he is now convinced more than ever that the defects of Obamacare are so “massive and pervasive” that the “Unaffordable Care Act” may never actually “see the light of day."

I asked the very same question in a personal note earlier today. Is the delay in the personal mandate a simple technicality, or is this the beginning of a much bigger story?

To me, there are two key parts to the bill (everything else is trivial):

• employer mandates -- NOW DELAYED 
• individual mandates -- will be ignored (social disobedience on a grand scale; the penalty is too small) and the individuals (18 - 35 who don't want to pay $5,000/year in health insurance premiums) will sue -- they can't be treated differently. 

The entire bill may simply be delayed a year. If so, it becomes a major issue for the 2016 presidential election (and we already know the poll numbers on O'BamaCare. If, on other hand, it completely unravels, this president has nothing for a legacy. Nothing. Except incompetence. But as Hillary says, "what does it matter."  

Later, 7:37 pm: huge, huge story by the WSJ.  The WSJ asks the same question I asked below: the legality of the president unilaterally delaying implementation of a portion of the law:

Which brings us to the dubious legality of this delay. The Affordable Care Act's Section 1513 states in black-letter law that "(d) Effective Date.—The amendments made by this section shall apply to months beginning after December 31, 2013." It does not say the Administration can impose the mandate whenever it feels it is politically convenient.

This selective enforcement of laws has become an Administration habit. From immigration (the Dream Act by fiat) to easing welfare reform's work requirements to selective waivers for No Child Left Behind, the Obama Administration routinely suspends enforcement of or unilaterally rewrites via regulation the laws it dislikes. Now it is doing it again on health care, without any consultation from, much less the approval of, Congress. President Obama probably figures business and Republicans won't object because they don't like the law anyway. 

I assume this will be brought to court by those who are required to sign up for ObamaCare (and don't want to) when large segments of the population are not required to do so. My hunch: the entire enrollment piece will be delayed by the White House. Whether or not Congress sues will make for interesting speculation.

However it turns out, even the most ill-informed can now see what a huge mess this bill will become. The Supreme Court ruled it is a tax, and that's why it was constitutional. But you can't delay taxes on some folks and not on others for arbitrary reasons without Congressional consent.

Original Post

The Daily Mail is reporting:

The official reason: the delay was intended to leave time to simplify reporting requirements and give companies time to adapt.

The real reason: Treasury source said the extra year will give the White House an extra year to persuade health insurers to participate in the exchanges that make up the backbone of the Affordable Care Act.

The revised timetable, the source added, will also push back the final implementation of Obamacare's penalties past the 2014 midterm elections, providing Republicans fewer chances to highlight the law's potentially harmful effects on businesses' bottom lines.

CNN is reporting:

The requirement that businesses provide their workers with health insurance or face fines – a key provision contained in President Barack Obama's sweeping health care law – will be delayed by one year, the Treasury Department said Tuesday. 

The postponement came after business owners expressed concerns about the complexity of the law’s reporting requirements, the agency said in its announcement. Under the Affordable Care Act, businesses employing 50 or more full-time workers that don't provide them health insurance will be penalized.

CNBC reports:

The administration plans to continue a dialogue with employers about the Affordable Care Act and publish proposed rules sometime this summer, the Treasury said in the statement. Real-world testing of the program will begin in 2014 with a full implementation in 2015, they said.

Bloomberg reports:

It’s the latest setback for a health-care law that has met resistance from Republicans, who have sought to make the plan a symbol of government overreach. Republican-controlled legislatures and governors in several states have refused funding to expand Medicaid coverage for the poor and declined to set up exchanges where individuals can buy insurance, leaving the job to the federal government.

The delay in the employer mandate addresses complaints from business groups to President Barack Obama’s administration about the burden of the law’s reporting requirements.

The best part of this delay: this will give everyone another year to figure out how best to "game" the requirements.

And Bloomberg raises the obvious question: will the individual mandate also be delayed? I would assume delaying the program for some and not others will not stand up in court. And even if it stands up in court, it won't stand up in the court of public opinion (or common sense).

The greatest fear the administration should have regarding O'BamaCare: individuals simply "blowing off" the individual mandate/requirement and paying the $95 penalty. This could end up being the greatest act of social disobedience in this country's history.

How I See ObamaCare

  

1. Despite thousands of pages in this law, the core content:

• employer mandates -- delayed, as of July, 2013, until at least 2015
• individual mandates -- still in effect as of July, 2013

2.  Much more broad than folks realize; will affect all areas of American commerce. For the first time ever, the US has defined the "official" work week: 30 hours. This will eventually affect "everybody": union negotiations; overtime; minimum wage; definition of fulltime vs parttime worker; benefits for fulltime vs parttime, etc.

3. The president is not lawfully allowed to change the law (delay the employer mandate) without Congressional approval. The "individual mandate" also has a good chance of being delayed. If the two core issues of the plan are delayed, it effectively guts the entire plan. Politicians will use the time to start overhauling the bill.

4. For the first time ever, the government has a method of obtaining detailed information (much more than the every-ten-year census) on every American. Unlike filing taxes, which is not required for a significant number of Americans (perhaps approaching 50% of the population), everyone has to enroll in some healthcare plan. If they have not enrolled previously, they will be enrolled at their first medical visit after January 1, 2014. The government now has a mailing list detailing everyone's address, income, job, financial status, health status.

5. At least part of the success of the program depends on healthy individuals, ages 18 - 45, who do not have any insurance, to sign up for individual health care at about $5,000 to $6,000/year. That will not happen. The initial penalty is a paltry $95 or 1% of one's taxable income, and will go up over time. As the Supreme Court rightly noted, this is a tax, and that's why the program was ruled constitutional.

6. The IRS, already widely unpopular, and coming under even more attack for its actions during the Obama administration, will become even more unpopular as it enforces a health law. Individuals will "blow off" the individual mandate: that was going to happen regardless, but with the official delay of the corporate mandate, individuals now have good cause to do the same. Individuals simply ignoring the individual mandate will turn out to be the nation's largest example of social disobedience in the history of the republic. The IRS will not have the resources to go after a measly $95 from every individual who does not complete the required paperwork. And even if they do, 1% of one's taxable income is a whole lot less than the estimated $5,000 to $6,000 in annual health care premiums.