We’ve seen 50 miles of new streets in the last 10 years,” he said. “Back in the mid-1990s, we were around 60,000 people. Today, we are over 80,000 and we project to be over 100,000 by 2020. There are state and federal regulations that we have to abide by. All these things are driving the expense of the [waste management] operation.”It would be interesting to hear more, specifically, what is driving a population growth from 60,000 to over 100,000 in just 25 years, of a small capital city in a remote state in the middle of fly-over country. Certainly not just oil. Or is it?
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
Random Data Point: Bismarck Growth
Don noted this interesting data point, regarding the population of Bismarck, from recent story in The Bismark Tribune regarding increased waste management costs.
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The last I looked Bismarck was the state capital. Now ND has billions of tax revenue coming in the door from the oil boom. The folks in Bismarck will find ways to spend more money and it means a bigger government presence. ND people are special people but not immune from the spending syndrome. It happens everywhere. Just a thought.
ReplyDeleteYou are correct. There will need to be more folks to manage the a) oil patch regulations specific to permitting; b) the federal and state regulations for environmental protection; and, c) the trust funds. But it's hard for me to believe that this would result in this kind of growth.
DeleteIn addition, the growth must have started before the Bakken boom; certainly it didn't grow by 20,000 people in the last five years (well, maybe it did. Smile).
There must be some industry growing. But you may be correct; state govt to "manage" the Bakken boom may be the major driver. If so, it is just another example of the huge spillover effect of the Bakken.
WM is switching to CNG. Cheaper, better.
ReplyDeleteSo, the high price of diesel is ... Interesting.
Anon 1
A couple of things jump out at me:
Delete1) a lot of times, city officials, especially in some cities, "live in the past," forgetting about the changes, or didn't listen to the WM presentation.
2) WM might have been telling the city one thing -- submitting a proposal based on diesel, and behind their own doors, planning on switching to CNG.
[On a completely different note, but along the same line, yes, diesel is quite expensive -- especially in North Dakota where so much is used.]
A lot of Bismarck's growth is just centralization of commerce: small towns no longer have much in the way of retail or services, as all that is cheaper in Bismarck, which drives traffic there, which increases the number of retail there, and the cycle continues. Much of SW ND and South Central ND below I94 have migrated to Bismarck, either as retirees or as young adults. Fargo is doing the same, although they have much more high tech jobs and their area is larger and extends way into Minnesota.
ReplyDeleteAgree. In fact, had the Bakken boom not occurred, Williston was gradually declining, folks "migrating" to Minot if they stayed in the area at all.
DeleteBest-Run States:
ReplyDelete1. North Dakota
Thinkstock> Debt per capita: $3,282 (22nd lowest)
> Budget deficit: None
> Unemployment: 3.5% (the lowest)
> Median household income: $51,704 (20th highest)
> Pct. below poverty line: 12.2% (13th lowest)
For the first time, North Dakota ranks as the best run state in the country. In recent years, North Dakota’s oil boom has transformed its economy. Last year, crude oil production rose 35%. As of August, 2012, it was the second-largest oil producer in the country. This was due to the use of hydraulic fracturing in the state’s Bakken shale formation. The oil and gas boom brought jobs to North Dakota, which had the nation’s lowest unemployment rate in 2011 at 3.5%, and economic growth. Between 2010 and 2011, North Dakota’s GDP jumped 7.6%, by far the largest increase in the nation. This growth has also increased home values, which rose a nation-leading 29% between 2006 and 2011. North Dakota and Montana are the only two states that have not reported a budget shortfall since fiscal 2009.
I grow up outside of Minot on a farm, and persons as they got older moved from the farm or small towns to minot for medical purposes (my parents did), this was a bad trend as population was aging and dropping. Western ND population is growing. It is people moving to the area. And its oil related. Sure the services are in Minot and Bismarck, but oil is the key. I always question the population numbers because no one seems to know. Bismarck at 60k seems light, seems like a lot more growth there over the years. And if you are adding 1,500 housing units, growth is going to be more that 2,000 a year. I think if you could actually get a good count on population in Minot, Williston, Dickinson, Bismarck, etc, the number of people living in these towns is higher than thought.
ReplyDeleteIt will be an interesting story to follow....thank you for taking time to comment.
DeleteI live in Bismarck. Bismarck was not 60,000 people in the 90's...and the last census puts Bismarck a little over 60,000 today. So not sure where they say we are 80,000 now???? Where did the Tribune get these census numbers? I do not doubt Bismarck will eventually hit 80,000 or even 100,000. But we are not 80,000.
ReplyDeleteI'm starting to wonder whether Bismarck might be over-paying for waste management. Just a thought. Too many folks with too many thoughts that start to suggest relative lack of competition, or relative lack of options, makes it more difficult to contain costs.
DeleteBy the way, the census said Burleigh county was estimated to be 81,000 in 2011. Maybe they are confusing the city of Bismarck with the Burleigh county?
ReplyDeleteThe more comments I receive on this, the more I get the feeling that the linked article was not fact checked.
DeleteBismarck is a very nice town, and a great place to locate your family while working in the Bakken. Hopefully, Williston comes together with affordable housing, otherwise I will "home" my family in Bismarck and just drive.
ReplyDeleteIn fact, I think a lot of folks will remain in Bismarck even if prices come down in Williston.
Delete