Drilling rigs
- We are probably near our top in active drilling rigs. It stands at about 200; most agree that the number will top out at about 225 - 250.
- Older rigs will probably be replaced with newer, more powerful rigs; think H&P
- Roughnecks are gaining experience every day
- More stable employee base is starting to materialize
- Major players suggest that they have adequate fracking crews, many are dedicated crews
- The smaller players do not have dedicated crews and wait in queue for available crews
- Conference calls: major players say they will catch up on fracking; my numbers suggest they won't catch up in the near term; more than 50 percent of wells coming off confidential list are still being placed on DRL status
- Halliburton recently announced they will hire 11,000 more workers; most to the Bakken
- Schlumberger is building huge new complex west of Williston, ND -- heart of the Bakken
- My hunch is that we are yet to see huge surge in frack teams
- Frack teams still gaining experience
- Major players still looking for optimum number of stages (of course, this varies even among wells)
- Major players still testing optimum technology (sliding sleeve; plug and per; zipper)
- Jury still out on sand vs proppants (expense/benefit ratio)
- Water is NOT a problem in the Bakken
- The state cobbled together a $150 million water plan for fracking and drinking water for cities in oil patch
- Lots of chatter on the boards about Bakken players losing their
permitsleases (see first comment below) - My hunch: these guys are smart enough to handle this; they won't lose their good
permitsleases - Lots of horse-trading could result
- Wells are expensive to drill, but they now drill two-section horizontals vs one-section horizontals
- Canary-in-the-coal-mine: companies issuing more stock to raise cash
- Canary-in-the-coal-mine: mergers, buyouts
- Carnary-in-the-coal-mine: poorer wells, dry wells
- Wells require maintenance
- Winters possibly harder on rigs and maintenance crews, increasing need for maintenance folks during winter
- Few number of Bakken wells to date, few mainentence crews
- As Bakken wells increase (166 new wells/month), expect to see surge in maintenance folks
- Construction: gathering facilities (natural gas and oil)
- Pipeline infrastructure
- Eectrical substations
- CRYO plants for natural gas (see earlier note on subject); crude-by-rail terminals
- Despite all the talk about housing issues in the Bakken, projects are moving ahead
- It appears that big operators have "taken by the bull by the horns" in Williston and adding significant housing
- See Kiewit subdivision
- Additional housing now expanding to outlying towns (Killdeer, New Town)
- My hunch: a lot of the roughnecks (single and young) won't move into single-unit homes; will stay in man-camps (for amenities) or move to apartments (with less restrictions)
- Any slack in single-unit housing by roughnecks will be replaced by surge in workers here long-term to maintain the wells
- With crude-by-rail ramping up, takeaway capacity no longer an issue
