Bakken Metrics -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Some time ago I asked readers to help me sort out best metrics for tracking the Bakken companies operating in the Bakken (for investment purposes).

The best metrics to date, by company:

• Total acreage held in the Bakken
• Year-over-year increase in acreage held in the Bakken
• Year-over-year increase in Bakken production
• Oil production vs share price over time

Other metrics of some use:

• Percentage of wells completed within six-month confidential period (BEXP seems to lead in this category)

With regard to oil production vs share price over time, a Seeking Alpha contributor provides a very interesting and compelling update.

Today let's shorten that and just look at one metric: Production growth per share. Most of the names in the Bakken players list have grown absolute production volumes from the Williston in line with a rising rig count in North Dakota and now in Montana. But share offerings along the way have in some cases muted this growth at the per share level which is key for investors as they hold the names for long term growth, not long term dilution. 

It should be noted that all analysts agree:

• The development of the Bakken is in its early stages
• The legacy formations have yet to be fully exploited
• Technology will improve

Some analysts opine:

• The Bakken is bigger than currently imagined (the average is less than one well per Bakken section now; the average will grow to at least two wells per Bakken sections; the better Bakken will grow to four wells/section)
• Secondary and tertiary production, each, will equal primary production over time
• Price of oil will trend higher over time
• Cost of drilling Bakken wells will decrease over time
• Bakken efficiency will improve over time (less flaring; less trucking)