Sunday, August 6, 2017

US Hitting On All Cylinders -- 3Q17 GDP Forecast Near 4% -- GDP Now -- August 6, 2017

Latest forecast: 3.7 percent — August 4, 2017
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2017 is 3.7 percent on August 4, down from 4.0 percent on August 3.
The forecasts of third-quarter real consumer spending growth and real fixed investment growth declined from 3.0 percent and 5.2 percent to 2.8 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively, after this morning's employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The model's estimate of the dynamic factor for July—normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to forecast yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data—decreased from 0.64 to 0.27 after the report.


  1. DONALD TRUMP: "My administration will be focused on three very important words: jobs, jobs, and jobs."

    Politically speaking, that's the bottom line. The other economic indicators are ancillary and not as salient.

    If Trump delivers on that promise of "jobs, jobs, jobs," all his other sins sill be forgiven.

    1. My hunch is that most companies realize they have a four-year window with regard to the US: friendly administration; no new taxes; low interest rates; low energy prices; some predictability ... even if no change in healthcare or tax policy.