Friday, April 21, 2017

The Energy And Market Page, T+90 -- April 21, 2017

Say it isn't so: Subway's store count shrinks for first time in company's history.  I first got a hint that this might be happening when I was told by our neighborhood Subway employees that a Subway a few miles south of us was closing. The restaurant competition in north Texas is mind-boggling.

Another one bites the dust: Bebe Stores (I had never heard of them) announced it was closing all of its stores -- I guess that means it is going out of business? -- the women's clothing retailer is the latest in a string of liquidations and bankruptcies that have swept the sector.

Sears: has been quietly closely more stores than it said it would.

Cut: Russia agrees on preliminary basis to extend cut in production when it is due to expire in June. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have already indicated the same (no previous link; I don't see this as news).

Shale doesn't matter?: From Reuters -- oil prices could tumble again on US shale influx. Shocked, I'm shocked! Memo to self: another note to Jane Nielson.

Record: US existing home sales surge in March -- reaching highs not seen since 2007. 

Record: 1Q17 oil, gas M & A activity hit record $73 billion. Data points:
  • due directly to Trump's policies
  • the record represents a 160% increase in M & A
  • includes the return of foreign capital in US shale assets
  • deals: 53 were announced during the first quarter, a 36% increase year-over-year
  • Permian Basin saw the greatest amount of activity: 20 deals in the Permian totaling over $20 billion; a new high for the play
  • eleven (11) megadeals worth $62 billion were key to set the record
  • the major plays (dollar amounts rounded):
    • Bakken: 1 deal, $51 million
    • Eagle Ford: 5 deals; $7 billion
    • Permian: 20 deals; $20 billion
    • Marcellus: 3 deals; $300 million
    • Utica: 1 deal, $130 million
Natural gas: this is being posted for the archives; most folks knew this was coming. The EIA says natural gas will be the top generation this summer. 
  • After a winter that saw natural gas prices pop — and coal-use subsequently spike — the U.S. Energy Information Administration believes the cleaner fuel will retake the top spot when it comes to power generation this summer.
  • Total generation will be lower this June, July and August, compared with last summer, but EIA believes gas' share will be about 34%, and coal's about 32%.
  • While natural gas took over from coal the top spot in generation last year, the trend reversed itself during the winter. But as the weather warms up, federal officials expect that to change again. Milder weather this summer, however, is expected to keep generation 2.4% lower than last summer.

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