Sunday, April 3, 2011

Expiring Leases -- CLR As Second Example -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

The scuttlebutt is that expiring leases could appreciate 10-fold in the Bakken at the end of this year.

Now that annual reports are out, one might be able to find out to what extent one's favorite company is at risk with regard to expiring leases.

CLR has the following amount of Williston Basin leases expiring as of December 31 of the corresponding year (numbers are rounded):
  • 2011: 100,000 net acres
  • 2012: 124,000 net acres
  • 2013: 214,000 net acres
CLR has about 24 rigs in the Williston Basin (22 in ND and 2 in MT)
  • 100,000 / 1280-acre spacing = 78 wells / 24 rigs -->  3 wells/rig/year -- obviously not a problem
  • Unless my calculations are wrong, or I have incorrect data to begin with, CLR has plenty of capacity
Compare with Oasis' expiring leases.
Compare with DNR's expiring leases.