Wednesday, April 1, 2020

More, Much More -- 13.8 Million Bbls More -- April 1, 2020

Updates

Later, 11:36 p.m. CT: see first comment, and reply. Comment:
Just a few records & benchmarks hit this week:
Oil inventories up the most since October 2016; refinery utilization lowest since Hurricane Harvey; gasoline production lowest in 22 years; gasoline demand lowest since February 1992, and the biggest one week demand drop ever ...
Oh, and that crude oil in storage now near the five-year average for this time of year; it's also about 30% above the prior 5 year average (ie, 2010 to 2014)...we've now had five fat years..
Original Post 

Link here.
  • US crude oil in storage increased by an unprecedented 13.8 million bbls;
  • US crude oil in storage now at 469.2 million bbls, near the five-year average for this time of year -- simply near the average -- "they" say;
  • US oil imports: averaged 6.0 million bopd, down by 70,000 bopd from the week before
  • refiners operating at 82.3% of their capacity; lowest in recent history?
  • total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.1 million b/d, down 2.2% 
  • gasoline: 8.7 million b/d, down almost 6%
  • distillate fuel: 4.0 million b/d, down by almost 5.5%
  • jet fuel supplied: down 16.4% compared with same four-week period last year
Re-balancing:


Week
Week Ending
Change
Million Bbls Storage
Week 0
November 21, 2018
4.9
446.9
Week 1
November 28, 2018
3.6
450.5
Week 2
December 6, 2018
-7.3
443.2
Week 3
December 12, 2018
-1.2
442.0
Week 4
December 19, 2018
-0.5
441.5
Week 5
December 28, 2018
0.0
441.4
Week 6
January 4, 2019
0.0
441.4
Week 7
January 9, 2019
-1.7
439.7
Week 8
January 16, 2019
-2.7
437.1
Week 9
January 24, 2019
8.0
445.0
Week 58
January 3, 2020
-11.5
429.9
Week 59
January 8, 2020
1.2
431.1
Week 60
January 15, 2020
-2.5
428.5
Week 61
January 23, 2020
-0.4
428.1
Week 62
January 29, 2020
3.5
431.7
Week 63
February 5, 2020
3.4
435.0
Week 64
February 12, 2020
7.5
442.5
Week 65
February 20, 2020
0.4
442.9
Week 66
February 26, 2020
0.5
443.3
Week 67
March 4, 2020
0.8
444.1
Week 68
March 11, 2020
7.7
451.8
Week 68
March 18, 2020
2.0
453.7
Week 69
March 25, 2020
1.6
455.4
Week 70
April 1, 2020
13.8
469.2

Jet fuel:

Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week


Week
Week Ending
Change
Week 0
March 11, 2020
-12.80%
Week 1
March 18, 2020
-12.6%
Week 2
March 25, 2020
-8.9%
Week 3
April 1, 2020
-16.4%

Crude oil imports:

Crude Oil Imports



Week
Week Ending
Raw Data, millions of bbls
Change
Week 0
March 11, 2029
6.4
0.174
Week 1
March 18, 2020
6.5
0.127
Week 2
March 25, 2020
6.1
-0.422
Week 3
April 1, 2020
6.0
-0.070

6 comments:

  1. CLR bonds are down in the ~50% range, depending on exact date of principal return.

    http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.jsp?ticker=C758923&symbol=CLR4628129

    look at the graph and how it plummeted from ~100. That has gone from a company seen as a survivor to one in danger of BK. Bondholders are worried about getting their money back.

    Bulls will say, those dates are a way off...but companies ignore this stuff at their peril. Can get bank revolver loans trimmed when the bonds are too much in danger.

    Look at Whiting.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You are correct.

      In fact, the next headlines:

      Banks at risk of failure.

      Banks at risk of "old fashioned" "bank run."

      I doubt the "stress tests" tested a black swan as severe as the Wuhan flu.

      Delete
  2. just a few records & benchmarks hit this week:

    oil inventories up the most since October 2016; refinery utilization lowest since Hurricane Harvey; gasoline production lowest in 22 years; gasoline demand lowest since February 1992, & the biggest one week demand drop ever..

    oh, and that crude oil in storage now near the five-year average for this time of year; it's also about 30% above the prior 5 year average (ie, 2010 to 2014)...we've now had five fat years..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you, thank you, thank you. That's absolutely mind-boggling / scary -- those gasoline statistics taking us back to the early 1990s. Wow.

      The EIA telling us the crude in storage is near the five year average for this time of year ... LOL .... I'm glad you pointed that -- the last five years have been huge for crude oil production / storage. I was pointing that out for months a year or so ago, but it finally got tedious -- I got the impression no one (except maybe folks like you) were paying attention. For the EIA to nonchalantly say crude oil in storage is near the five-year average is "technically" true but completely misses the point.

      Delete
    2. we lived through the early 90s and survived, Bruce...the time to start worrying is when the statistics take us back to the early 30s...

      Delete
    3. Thank you. I swing from "what me, worry" to "panic." LOL.

      Delete

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