Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Whiting's Incredible Wells -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Later today, if I have have time I'm going to review thirty to fifty Whiting wells that have been on-line for at least one year, just to remind folks how incredible the Bakken is.

But for now, I highly recommend folks go back and look at some of the monster wells in the Bakken and wells with high initial production numbers. There have been so many incredible Bakken wells, I no longer post wells with IPs less than 2,000 on that page (with some exceptions); there would be just too many to post. It's funny. The typical non-Bakken well ten years ago: we were happy to get a well with an IP of 300. Then when it went to 600 in the early boom, folks got very excited. I remember folks being upset when "their" well came in with an IP less than 1,000. And they debated the merits of the relevancy and accuracy of these IPs. It appears that BEXP was right. CLR says high IPs mean a) that the wells will be paid off more quickly; and, b) that EURs will be higher. Whiting, Newfield, and Oasis are others that have been most consistent with 1,000-bbl IPs.  Hess and EOG continue to disappoint, but they may have other strategies. Now that we have three years of production, it will be interesting to compare the WLL wells in the Sanish with the EOG wells in the Parshall.

I had forgotten how incredible the Bakken has been and continues to be. I forgot who said it, but I will find it: an experienced oilman, with more than 30 years of experience in the oil patch, says that with regard to the Bakken, he has never seen anything like it.

Now that we've got two to three years of production history in the North Dakota Bakken, it will be "fun" to look at how some of these wells have done.

As a rule of thumb, a Bakken well needs to produce 100,000 bbls of oil to "show" that it will pay for itself. It appears that "every" Bakken well will hit 100,000 bbls by five years, most by three years, may by two years, and some in 18 months or less. Is five years a long time? Most analysts expect Bakken wells to go on producing for 25 - 30 years.

Bakken wells "hold their leases by production."  The lease remains in effect for an "eternity." While producing, that well holds that spacing unit, and 30 years for me, is an "eternity."

We have barely seen any "development" or "infill" wells except in some areas. Most of the wells completed before 2010 were completed with an inadequate number of frack stimulation stages and those wells will be re-worked and re-fracked.

So, enjoy the links above, and hopefully I have time to update 30 - 50 Whiting wells that have been producing for at least one full year.

Remember: this is not an investment site. From my perspective, the "easy" money has been made in the Bakken. The Bakken has finally been "discovered" on Wall Street where analysts understand spreadsheets but do not understand the oil patch. I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken but that doesn't mean I'm inappropriately exuberant about investing in the Bakken. 

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