Saturday, November 11, 2017

Week 45: November 5, 2017 -- November 11, 2017

Internationally, the president had a great Asian trip and Venezuela hangs on. The price of oil manages to maintain $64 (Brent) and $57 (WTI). But incredibly bad news for Saudi Arabia: the EIA forecasts Brent to average $56/bbl through 2018. Saudi Arabia set their 2018 budget based on $70 oil. And if more bad news was needed, OPEC forecast that US shale oil production will soar over the next four years.

For those who care, I don't, but it's fun to follow, atmospheric CO2 rose 0.7% year-over-year (October, 2017-October, 2016) which is a slower growth than October 2016-October 2015 (0.8%). The US is currently experiencing an unexpected Arctic blast.

In the US, not talked about much, but an Arctic blast has brought record lows to much of the United States. The Trump tax reform plan is DOA and the GOP "replacement" tax reform plan is on "life support." CNBC talking heads act surprised. Gasoline demand in the US this past week was still greater than it was a year ago.  Analysts suggest US refiners are going to have a highly successful winter: they have a huge US "backlog" and they have a huge Mexican market which provides better margins than in the US.

Shell announces another milestone met with its petrochemical complex near Pittsburgh, the first of its kind outside the Gulf of Mexico.

In non-Bakken energy-related news, BP comes clean: the company has abandoned solar energy, calling it a costly lesson. BP now stands for "back to petroleum."

US natural gas production continues to surge. Update on export terminals.

The Red Queen has not fallen off her treadmill: US crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose in the US this past week. The number of weeks it will take to "re-balance" supply/demand rose from 38 weeks to 42 weeks, almost a year. One contributor to SeekingAlpha suggests that "re-balancing" and "peak oil" are right around the corner -- I posted that for the archives.

And then this: OPEC forecasts that US shale oil production will soar over the next four years

Results of three high-intensity fracks announced
Twelve DUCs reported as completed
EUR type curves in the Bakken: 1.5 million boe
Hess reports three huge Antelope wells
Update on the Enerplus Warrior pad
The outstanding WPX Ruby and Ruby Parshall wells
CLR's Rath Federal wells have been fracked

MRO reports the results of a huge DUC
More great results for completed DUCs

DAPL means huge earnings for Oasis

Natural gas processing
Update on the largest NG processing plant in North Dakota, being built by Oasis 

Bakken economy
Pricing spread: Bakken vs Louisiana Light Sweet vs WTI Houston (if you have time to read just one article this weekend, this would be that article)

North Dakota State wants a "stay" on the mineral rights case 
CO2 capture: UND EERC has two wells to test viability of CO2 capture projects

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