Re-Posting EIA's Forecast For Crude Oil Prices In 2018

EIA has just released its monthly short-term energy outlook. The outlook on crude oil is worth re-posting:

• Brent crude oil prices averaged almost $58 per barrel in October, the highest monthly average since June 2015, as global oil stock have fallen by an estimated 400,000 barrels per day over the past six months. 
• EIA expects Brent prices to average $56 per barrel next year.
• Despite lower production in of the Gulf of Mexico during October, mainly attributed to Hurricane Nate, total U.S. crude oil production averaged 9.3 million barrels per day for the month. Our forecast continues to expect overall U.S. production to average 9.9 million barrels per day for all of 2018.

So, again, in case you missed it: Brent recently went to $58, getting everyone excited about a bull market in oil. But EIA forecasts Brent prices to average $56 in 2018. Correct me of I'm wrong, but $56 is two dollars less than $58. Other things to consider:

• unless the Brent - WTI spread flips, WTI will be trading in the range of $50 - $52 based on EIA's forecast for Brent -- $50 to $52
• OPEC forecasts US shale production to soar
• Saudi needs a minimum of $70-oil to balance its budget; $58 is a long, long way from $70

It's a fool's errand to forecast oil prices but assuming there is no geopolitical event in the Mideast that might upset the apple cart, I cannot argue with either the EIA or OPEC. 

US consumers should look forward to stable gasoline prices, and Saudi Arabia remains in deep doo-doo. 

From a Bloomberg article today, "OPEC fights back," dated November 7, 2017, one almost has to laugh. These were the two concluding paragraphs:

While prices are a bit better now, the coming years don’t look so great. OPEC is probably going to need to sustain its cuts for another year. Even if the cuts finish in late 2018, it’s looking at zero growth in demand for its crude until 2025 as shale takes all the new market share. 

OPEC’s World Oil Outlook 2017, published today, gives further encouragement. OPEC expects shale oil production to peak after 2025 and decline from about 2030. OPEC will then be required to increase its own output from about 33 million barrels a day in 2025 to 41.4 million in 2040, according to the report.