Monday, July 30, 2018

The Decline Rate In The Permian -- July 30, 2018

This is pretty hilarious. Remember all those horror stories about the "decline rates" in the Bakken? I don't hear much chatter about decline rates in the Bakken any more.

But now we're starting to hear about decline rates in the Permian. From Rigzone: Permian decline rate inaccuracies risky for operators, investors. (Journalists show risk of letting others write the headlines):

From the linked article:
The Permian has thousands of vertical wells that have been producing for decades, but the relative immaturity of the Wolfcamp compared to other zones means pure field data for horizontal tight-oil wells goes back just eight years. Because of this, proxy values based on decades-old data from vertical wells and other shale plays have often been used to determine tight-oil terminal decline rates.
“The challenges of modeling tight well estimated ultimate recoveries (EURs) are growing and accurately selecting a representative terminal decline rate is not always straightforward,” Ryan Duman, principal analyst with Wood Mackenzie’s Lower 48 upstream team, said in a release. “It may have been historically, but using those assumptions for today’s Wolfcamp wells in the Permian may contribute to inaccurate volume assessments and valuations.”
While Wood Mackenzie’s analysis shows terminal decline rates for the Permian’s vertical wells is between five percent and 10 percent annually, the most common terminal decline value observed in mature horizontal Wolfcamp wells is 14 percent.
Once the decline rates are adjusted to reflect the more realistic 14 percent scenario, it’s realized that terminal declines are a long-term risk to production. By 2040, nearly 800,000 barrels per day of Permian production is lost.
Much more at the link.

Sounds like the Bakken to me, during the boom. 

A Note for the Granddaughters

One of the traditions with the granddaughters is reading Black Beauty, Anna Sewell, 1877. I first read it to the older granddaughter and then the middle granddaughter. I don't recall Olivia caring for the book all that much, but I must have read the book to Arianna, the older granddaughter, at least three times during pre-school and early elementary grades.

The took follows the life of a single horse from a young horse -- I don't recall if it went all the way back to his life as a colt -- through old age, and how his life changed throughout his life. It was told through the eyes of the horse. It's a beautiful book, a beautiful story.

The other night I read the first chapter to Sophia who just turned four years old in July, 2018. She isn't ready for Black Beauty but she "stayed with me" for the entire first chapter.

One of the reasons I love the book was reading about all the kinds of horse carriages. So, this passage in The Victorians, A. N. Wilson, c. 2003, pp. 261 - 262:
Mrs Warren reckoned in A House and Its Furnishing (1860s, England) that a six-roomed house could be run if you had an income of £200 per annumA New System of Practical Domestic Economy estimated that you should set aside 10 percent of your income on horses or carriages, which would mean you needed £1,000 for a four-wheeler with horses. (The coachman would be paid for out of the 8 percent you would spend on the wages of male servants.) If you had £600 a year you could keep two horses if your groom doubled as a footman. A gig cost £700: that is, a one-horse carriage -- a tilbury or a chaise.
This was the great era of 'carriage folk.' At the beginning of the [19th] century, elliptic springs had made this soon-to-be-obsolete mode of transport enjoy a magnificent flowering. The berlin, barouche, calèche, coupé, clarence, daumont, landau and phaeton all crowded the streets of London in the supposedly prosaic railway age.

In 1814, there were 23,000 four-whelled vehicles in the capital; by 1834, 49,000; by 1864 [think, US Civil War], 102,000, with a further 170,000 two-wheelers.

This represents a huge social class, as well as huge congestion in the streets; and it is this class, this immensely privileged class, probably more comfortable than any human class who had ever existed on the planet, whose offspring were the first with the leisure and time to have a childhood.
If I remember, I will keep the reader updated with the types of carriages mentioned in Black Beauty.

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